Aryna Sabalenka will face Jessica Pegula in the 2024 US Open women's singles final in New York

2024 US Open Women's Final Preview: Pegula vs. Sabalenka

In the 2024 US Open women’s singles final, will Aryna Sabalenka avenge her 2023 US Open final loss and win her first title in Queens?

Or will American Jessica Pegula make it back-to-back US Open women’s singles titles for the red, white, and blue?

With help from UTR Sports INSIGHTS, let’s preview Saturday’s 2024 US Open women’s singles final in Flushing Meadows.

6) Jessica Pegula (UTR Rating 12.87) vs. 2) Aryna Sabalenka (UTR Rating 12.88)

Jessica Pegula had been 0-6 in Grand Slam quarterfinals before the 2024 US Open. But the 30-year-old has snapped that streak at her home Slam as she’s not only made her first semifinal but also her first major championship final.

Pegula upset No. 1 and 2022 US Open champion Iga Swiatek (UTR 13.13) in the quarterfinals before coming from behind to beat 2023 Roland Garros finalist Karolina Muchova (UTR 12.74) 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 in the semifinals.

Jessica Pegula reaches her first major championship final at the 2024 US Open

“It's a lot of work, a lot of hard work put in. You couldn't even imagine how much goes into it,” Pegula said of making her first Grand Slam final.

“I'm just happy to be in a final, but obviously I come here to want to win the title. You know, if you would have told me at the beginning of the year I'd be in the finals of the US Open, I would have laughed so hard, because that just was where my head was, was not thinking that I would be here.

“So to be able to overcome all those challenges and say that I get a chance at the title Saturday is what we play for as players, let alone being able to do that in my home country here, in my home Slam. It's perfect, really.”

Pegula has been one of the most in-form players on the WTA, winning 15 of her past 16 matches. But her lone loss came to Sabalenka last month in the Cincinnati final.

"I think I know that I can have a game that can possibly frustrate her. I feel like in the past I just, you know, have to be aggressive, I have to get her moving, serve smart, and try and put some pressure on her serve," Pegula said.

Sabalenka leads their head to head 5-2, including that straight-sets win three weeks ago in Ohio. The two-time Australian Open champion has won 11 consecutive matches and 26 of her past 27 matches at the hard-court majors, the Australian Open and US Open.

It’s that one loss – her 2023 US Open final loss to American Coco Gauff – that Sabalenka will be looking to avenge with all of her considerable power on Saturday in Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Sabalenka has dropped only one set through six matches in New York. She dominated Paris Olympics gold medalist Qinwen Zheng of China (UTR 12.74) 6-1, 6-2 in the quarterfinals before staying calm to beat American Emma Navarro 6-3, 7-6(2) (UTR 12.70).

"I worked really hard on my mindset on the match. Yeah, I think I made really huge improvement on that calmness, on that crucial moments," Sabalenka said.

"I'm really happy to see that in those key moments I'm able to stay focused and just try to do my best and focusing on my tennis, on things which I have to do to win this match, not like on outside. Even if things are not working well for me, I'm still keep doing right things and I'm staying in control."

How will Pegula handle the nerves, and will she be able to handle Sabalenka’s power? On the other hand, for the second consecutive year, the New York crowd will be rooting for a home favorite in the women’s final, and how will Sabalenka handle that in 2024? All questions that will help determine the outcome of the final.

A bit of history will be on the line as well. Sabalenka could become only the fourth woman in the Open era to win both hard-court Grand Slam titles in the same season, joining Steffi Graf (1988, ‘89), Monica Seles (1991, ‘92), Martina Hingis (1997), and Angelique Kerber (2016).

Pegula, for her part, is looking to become only the third American woman to win a US Open women’s singles title after turning 30 years old (Serena Williams 2012, 2013, 2014; and Martina Navratilova, 1987).

UTR Sports INSIGHTS pegs this final as essentially a toss-up, with Sabalenka a 51% favorite to win her first US Open women's singles title.

More UTR Sports coverage of 2024 US Open and tennis

UTR Rating and INSIGHTS predictability percentages accurate as of 5 p.m. ET, Friday, September 6, 2024.

Back to blog