Frances Tiafoe faces Taylor Fritz in an all-American US Open men's SF

2024 US Open Men's SF Preview: Fritz vs. Tiafoe; Sinner vs. Draper

We will have a new US Open men’s singles champion. But who will face off in Sunday’s 2024 US Open men’s singles final?

With help from UTR Sports INSIGHTS, let’s dive into Friday’s semifinals between No. 1 Jannik Sinner and 25th seed Jack Draper, and the two Americans making history, Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe.

1) Jannik Sinner (UTR Rating 16.31) vs. 25) Jack Draper (15.87)

Sinner won his first Grand Slam title in January 2024 at the Australian Open. But the Italian is in new territory in Queens, having reached his first US Open semifinal.

Sinner outsmarted 2021 US Open champion Daniil Medvedev (16.07) to become the fourth active player to reach the singles semifinals at all four Grand Slam tournaments.

His opponent, Draper, also has never been in the final four of the US Open, or any other major championship, for that matter. The 22-year-old Brit beat Aussie Alex de Minaur for the first time (now 1-3 in head-to-head) in straight sets in the quarterfinals.

Draper, a 6-foot-4 lefty, will try to take the racquet out of Sinner’s hands when they meet on Friday. But Sinner, perhaps the best ball striker in the game, will likely be content to move Draper all over the baseline.

Sinner has the UTR Rating advantage, but, according to UTR Sports INSIGHTS, Draper has been performing like a player with a UTR Rating of 16.30 over his past five matches.

That being said, UTR Sports INSIGHTS still predicts Sinner will coast into his second major championship of the season and his first in New York. He’s a 73% favorite to beat Draper, and a 50% favorite to win the title.

Jannik Sinner hits a forehand at 2024 US Open

12) Taylor Fritz (16.05) vs. 20) Frances Tiafoe (15.78)

Fritz and Tiafoe have given the American men’s tennis faithful everything they’ve been dreaming of for nearly the past 20 years.

Their semifinal on Friday night will be the first all-American Grand Slam singles semifinal since the 2005 US Open, when Andre Agassi beat Robby Ginepri in five sets.

Fritz leads the head to head between the longtime friends 6-1, including six consecutive wins after Tiafoe won their maiden showdown eight years ago at Indian Wells. But Tiafoe also trailed in the head to head between his US Open quarterfinal opponent, Grigor Dimitrov, 1-3.

As Tiafoe said after reaching his second US Open semifinal in three years, “It’s different on Ashe, man.”

Fritz beat 2020 US Open finalist Alexander Zverev for the second consecutive major championship to reach his first Grand Slam semifinal (had been 0-4 in major quarterfinals). 

No American man has won a Grand Slam singles title since Andy Roddick won the 2003 US Open, and no American man has played in a Grand Slam singles final since Roddick at 2009 Wimbledon.

But that latter drought, if not both of them, will end this fortnight as either Fritz or Tiafoe will play in his first major singles championship on Sunday.

UTR Sports INSIGHTS predicts that it will be Fritz (64% favorite) rather than Tiafoe in the 2024 US Open final.

Read more about the 2024 US Open from UTR Sports

UTR Rating and INSIGHTS predictability percentages accurate as of 4 p.m. ET Thursday Sept. 5, 2024.

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