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On Sunday, Novak Djokovic lifted his seventh Wimbledon trophy to extend his winning streak on Centre Court to a full decade. While ranking points were not awarded this year, UTR Ratings were very much in play and his opponent, Nick Kyrgios, saw the most improvement.
The women’s final went the way of Elena Rybakina with a three-set win over a favored Ons Jabeur. Rybakina is the first Kazah player in history to win a Grand Slam.
Djokovic Wins Fourth Wimbledon in a Row
Ahead of the tournament, Universal Tennis INSIGHTS actually predicted that Rafael Nadal (UTR Rating 16.06) would win the championships, with 26% odds compared to Novak Djokovic (16.03) at 17%. Nadal, who won the Australian Open and Roland Garros, suffered an abdominal injury in a five-set win over Taylor Fritz. He withdrew from the semifinals, giving Nick Kygios (15.71) a place in his first major final.
During the fortnight, Djokovic collected wins over Miomir Kecmanovic, Tim van Rijthoven, Jannik Sinner, and Cameron Norrie. Against Kyrgios, he dropped the opening set, but weathered the storm to come through, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(3), making good on INSIGHTS' 69% winning odds.
Djokovic’s ATP ranking actually dropped, moving down to No. 7 as all of his 2021 Wimbledon-winning points fell off. He’s up to No. 2 in the UTR Pro Tennis Tour rankings, which are based on UTR Rating.
“Now I’m over the moon with joy and happiness of experiencing this moment once again,” Djokovic said of Grand Slam No. 21. “I don't take any wins for granted, and particularly not in Wimbledon. Every time feels special in its own way.”
Kyrgios Enjoys Breakthrough
Kyrgios had the best performance of his entire career. At 27, he admitted thinking that any deep Grand Slam run opportunities were in the rear mirror. Instead, he made good on his status as an INSIGHTS dark horse, highlighted by an upset over No. 4 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas.
The Australian’s ATP ranking would have jumped inside of the Top 20 but instead is at No. 45. Based on UTR Ratings though, he’s No. 9 in the world.
“I feel like you look at what Novak has done to some other opponents, and it's not a good feeling, but I'm right there,” Kyrgios said. “I'm not behind the eight ball at all. I played a Slam final against one of the greatest of all time, and I was right there.”
Rybakina Pulls off the Unpredictable
Women’s champion Elena Rybakina (12.81) wasn’t actually inside of the Top 10 highest-rated players going into the grass-court major. With many top seeds falling, including No. 1 Iga Swiatek, plenty of new faces made it deep in London. In fact, 50% of the quarterfinals were unseeded players with 34-year-old Tatjana Maria making the semifinals.
No. 17-seeded Rybakina didn’t face a seed until the semifinals, where she upset No. 16-seeded Simona Halep (13.13). In the final against No. 3 seed Ons Jabeur (13.14), she bounced back to win 3-6, 6-2, 6-2. Jabeur was favored by INSIGHTS at 72%.
“I don't regret anything,” the Tunisian said. “I gave it all today. I don't disbelieve in myself and I know that I'm going to come back and win a Grand Slam, for sure. This is tennis, and it's part of it. I have to learn from it, definitely.”
Jabeur is No. 5 in the WTA rankings after starting Wimbledon at No. 2, but per UTR Rating, she’s the second-best player in the world behind Swiatek. Had WTA points been awarded, 23-year-old Rybakina would be inside of the Top 10 for the first time. Maria would have seen the biggest leap, going from No. 98 to the Top 30.
“It’s so unexpectable these two weeks, what happened,” Rybakina said. “It was such a tough match mentally and physically, so in the end, I was just super happy that it finished. In this moment I just didn’t believe that I made it.”
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•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 6 a.m. EST, July 12, 2022.