Wimbledon Matches to Watch: Nadal vs. Fritz and Halep vs. Anisimova

Wimbledon Matches to Watch: Nadal vs. Fritz and Halep vs. Anisimova

4 min read

Exciting clashes are coming up at Wimbledon this week and Universal Tennis INSIGHTS is helping to preview it all. Rafael Nadal is three wins away from his third Grand Slam of 2022, while Nick Kyrgios has matched his best Wimbledon performance from eight years ago. Meanwhile, the women’s field has just one player left that’s won a major before: No. 16-seeded Simona Halep.

Nadal to Get Rematch with Fritz

Rafael Nadal (UTR Rating 16.13) has rather quietly made his way to the quarterfinals where No. 11 seed Taylor Fritz (15.58) awaits. Though he’s brand new to this stage of a Grand Slam, Fritz is familiar with Nadal: He beat him in the Indian Wells final earlier this year.

Fritz has yet to drop a set though INSIGHTS is still siding with the No 2 seed, giving Nadal a 79% chance of reaching the semifinals. Nadal is seeking his third Grand Slam of 2022, having won the Australian Open and Roland Garros. He's the INSIGHTS tournament favorite to win Wimbledon at a whopping 40%, ahead of Novak Djokovic at 29%.

Kyrgios Poised for Semifinal Breakthrough

The other men’s quarterfinal on Thursday will see Nick Kyrgios (15.71) take on Cristian Garin (15.34) with Kyrgios favored at 71%. The last time Kyrgios was in a Wimbledon quarterfinal was in 2014, which feels like a lifetime ago. He has played some phenomenal tennis to get this far with wins over Filip Krajinovic, Stefanos Tstisipas, and Brandon Nakashima.



Garin is considered more of a clay-court specialist with all five of his ATP titles coming on dirt. This fortnight marks his first major quarterfinal. He got a lucky break to get his bid started when his first-round opponent, last year’s finalist Matteo Berrettini, was forced to withdraw.

After the dust settled over his drama with Stefanos Tsitsipas, the 27-year-old is taking criticism in stride, sort of.

“It’s so funny. I joke around with my team about it so much. It’s hilarious. I almost just wake up and read things, and I just laugh,” he said. “And I never forget things the people say, whether it was three, four years ago, things that just stick with me. I have a massive chip on my shoulder. Like I sit here now in quarterfinals Wimbledon again, and I just know there so many people that are so upset.”

In their upcoming first career meeting, Kyrgios has the edge over Garin in almost every INSIGHTS category including overall UTR Rating, trending three-month UTR Rating, and recent win-loss record.

Halep Last Former Champion Left

The top half of the women’s draw has three-time Grand Slam champion Simona Halep (13.09) favored to reach the final weekend. The Romanian will need to get past No. 20-seeded Amanda Anisimova (13.00) first, with INSIGHTS expecting a close one: Halep has the advantage at 54%.

Halep and Anisimova have an interesting history against each other. Anisimova won their first meeting at Roland Garros in 2019 on her way to the semifinals. The following year in Paris, Halep dismissed the 20-year-old with the loss of just one game. Their most recent meeting this year in Bad Homburg handily went Halep’s way, 6-2, 6-1.



Rybakina Settles In

The other top half women’s quarterfinal features Ajla Tomljanovic (12.39) and No. 17 seed Elena Rybakina (12.73). They’ve faced off once before with Rybakina beating the Australian in Madrid last year before reaching her first Grand Slam quarterfinal at Roland Garros. Tomljanovic broke through at the All-England Club last year by reaching her first major quarterfinal.

Elena Rybakina is looking to reach her first major semifinal on Thursday. (AP Photo: Alastair Grant)

The 23-year-old Rybakina certainly feels as though she belongs here.

"I never compared myself with anyone. I just know that I have this gift. I'm tall and I play really fast,” Rybakina said. "It's effortless, I would say. It's not something I'm working in the gym or something. This is my weapon, and I'm just trying to use it as much as I can.”

Rybakina has the INSIGHTS edge at 69% with higher UTR Ratings, a better recent win-loss record, and more wins against common opponents.

Stay tuned for more from INSIGHTS, and to learn more about Universal Tennis, click here.

•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 6 a.m. EST, July 5, 2022.

Back to blog