4 min read
The quarterfinals are taking shape at Wimbledon with a flurry of players making their first appearances this deep at a Grand Slam. All of the upsets have made for an exciting tournament as seeds dropped all weekend, including No. 1 seed Iga Swiatek.
Women’s dark horses continued to press forward as unseeded Alize Cornet stunned Swiatek in straight sets to open up the top half of the draw. At No. 3, Ons Jabeur is the highest seed in the draw and outright favorite in the bottom half.
The biggest news for the men was Nick Kyrgios’ dramatic upset of No. 4 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas. The two exchanged antics on the court and in the press room with Kyrgios debuting an underhand between-the-legs serve and Tsitsipas losing his cool in hitting balls at Kyrgios and into the stands.
Let's look ahead to what's coming up in the quarterfinals with intel from Universal Tennis INSIGHTS.
Bouzkova Keeps Rolling
The bottom of the draw has reached the quarterfinal stage with two first-time major semifinalists guaranteed. Marie Bouzkova (12.71) kept her breakthrough performance going with a 7-5, 6-2 win over Caroline Garcia (12.35). She will be the underdog against No. 3 seed Ons Jabeur (13.14), the highest remaining seed in the bottom half of the draw. With Swiatek out, Jabeur is the INSIGHTS' favorite to win Wimbledon at 37%.
Jabeur is expected to win at 74% odds, per INSIGHTS. The Tunisian also reached the quarterfinals in London last year. She has never faced Bouzkova before but has the higher overall UTR Rating and higher three-month trending UTR Rating at 13.18 to 12.77.
New Quarterfinals Steal the Spotlight
Bouzkova is far from the only first-time major quarterfinalist in London. On Sunday, Unseeded Tatjana Maria (12.20) saved two match points in a 5-7, 7-5, 7-5 win over No. 12-seeded Jelena Ostapenko (12.89). The 34-year-old Maria only returned to the WTA Tour a year ago after welcoming her second child.
Maria will play her first-ever Grand Slam quarterfinal against fellow German Jule Niemeier (12.54). Wimbledon marks Niemeier’s second main draw Grand Slam appearance. The 22-year-old is favored by INSIGHTS at 71% with higher UTR Ratings and a better record against common opponents. Not only has she never won a Grand Slam match before this fortnight, but she only just cracked the Top 100 in the WTA rankings. Notably, her PTT ranking (based on UTR Rating) is up at No. 46.
What a debut for Jule Niemeier 🇩🇪#Wimbledon | @DTB_Tennis pic.twitter.com/2Gn87UYjjc
— Billie Jean King Cup (@BJKCup) July 3, 2022
Djokovic Faces Biggest Hurdle
Men’s top seed Novak Djokovic (16.06) has been challenged a few times this fortnight including by wild card Tim Van Rijthoven (15.00), who managed to get a set off the world No. 1. The Serbian will face his toughest challenge yet against No. 10 seed Jannik Sinner (15.74), where he’s favored at 69%, his lowest odds yet. Djokovic has only played the young Italian once, beating him on clay in Monaco last year.
Though just 20 years old, Sinner is overdue for an even bigger run at a major. He’s seeking his first semifinal and has wins over John Isner and Carlos Alcaraz under his belt in London.
Norrie Carries the Flag
The other quarterfinal in the top half will see last remaining Brit Cameron Norrie (15.60) try to keep home hopes alive against David Goffin (15.38). Though Goffin is unseeded after injury struggles in 2021, he was a mainstay inside of the Top 10 as recently as 2020. Goffin will be playing in his fourth career Grand Slam quarterfinal. Like Bouzkova, Maria, and Niemeier, Norrie is contesting his first Grand Slam quarterfinal.
Norrie is favored by INSIGHTS at 65% to keep going at the All-England Club with higher UTR Ratings and a better recent win-loss record (73-29 to 31-24). Their only career meeting, last year in Barcelona, ended in mid-match retirement by Goffin.
Players to Watch
Monday marks Independence Day in the United States and Americans have done their country proud at Wimbledon with five appearing in the fourth round: Amanda Anisimova, Brandon Nakashima, Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, and Tommy Paul. Eight American men reached at least the third round (25% of the field) — the most at Wimbledon since 1995 and at any major since 1996.
Stay tuned for more from INSIGHTS, and to learn more about Universal Tennis, click here.
•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 6 a.m. EST, July 4, 2022.