At Wimbledon, Barty and Federer Roll as Bublik and Rogers Notch Upsets

At Wimbledon, Barty and Federer Roll as Bublik and Rogers Notch Upsets

6 min read

On Thursday at Wimbledon, INSIGHTS and fan favorites advanced to the third round. Top seed Ashleigh Barty (UTR Rating 13.32*) continued her campaign with a 6-4, 6-3 win over Anna Blinkova. Even with uncharacteristic unforced errors (33) and nine double faults, Barty still found a way to win.

The Australian has been the Universal Tennis INSIGHTS favorite to win the title, with a probability of 23%. The former Roland Garros champion’s best result at Wimbledon was the fourth round in 2019, which marked the last time she played on grass. After retiring from her second-round match at Roland Garros last month, the 25-year-old played no grass warm-up events.

“It has been a while. It kind of felt like it hasn't been so long, though,” Barty told press after her first-round win over Carla Suarez Navarro. “Grass-court tennis has always felt like it's come quite naturally to me. It's just about trying to go out there and play the best that I can on that day.”

She’ll next face Katerina Siniakova (UTR Rating 12.63), with INSIGHTS giving Barty an 83% chance of advancing.

Though Roger Federer (UTR Rating 15.34) is not an INSIGHTS Wimbledon favorite, he’s the ultimate fan favorite, having won 18 ATP Fan's Favorite Player awards in a row. He continued to fill his fans with hope as he completed a 7-6(1), 6-1, 6-4 win over Richard Gasquet to become the oldest man since Ken Rosewall in 1975 to reach the third round.



“It was a wonderful match today,” Federer said. “I was really happy with my performance today. Tough first set, and after that, I had a great second set; I was just a little bit better in the third. I’m very, very happy, of course.”

The Swiss will next play home favorite Cameron Norrie (UTR Rating 15.51) in their first career meeting. Per INSIGHTS, with a higher UTR Rating and a lot more recent wins under his belt, Norrie has a 60% chance of ousting the 20-time Grand Slam champion. Federer has played just 11 matches (7-4) since the 2020 Australian Open.

Featured Women's Matches to Watch

Karolina Muchova (UTR Rating 12.92) vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (UTR Rating 12.81)

Like Roland Garros champion Barbora Krejcikova, Pavlyuchenkova has had a rapid transition from clay to grass. At No. 16, the Paris finalist is seeded three spots higher than Muchova, yet INSIGHTS gives Muchova the edge at 56%. Muchova has the higher UTR Rating, greater win percentage over the previous 15 months, and better record against their common opponents. Pavlyuchenkova has a 2-0 career lead over the Czech and beat her in the Madrid quarterfinals this year.

Shelby Rogers (UTR Rating 12.76) vs. Elena Rybakina (UTR Rating 12.69)

According to INSIGHTS, Rogers holds a 54% chance of upsetting the No. 18-seeded Rybakina. She has played inspired tennis already with wins over Samantha Stosur and No. 15 seed Maria Sakkari. No stranger to going deep at majors, Rogers reached the quarterfinals of last year's US Open with a win over Rybakina in the first round. Rybakina evened their head-to-head record by beating the American on grass in Berlin just two weeks ago.



Featured Men's Matches to Watch

Sebastian Korda (UTR Rating 15.44) vs. Daniel Evans (UTR Rating 15.29)

Korda upset No. 15 seed Alex de Minaur in the first round before easing past qualifier Antoine Hoang. Now INSIGHTS gives the 20-year-old American a 56% chance of taking out No. 22 seed Evans. Though Evans has yet to drop a set, Korda has a higher overall and three-month Trending UTR Rating and has a greater winning percentage (50-17) over the previous 15 months.

Alexander Bublik (UTR Rating 15.14) vs. Hubert Hurkacz (UTR Rating 14.88)

Bublik moved into his first Wimbledon third round with a three-set win over No. 18 seed Grigor Dimitrov and is favored at a sizeable 63% to beat No. 14-seeded Hurkacz on Saturday. Both Bublik and Hurkacz are seeking their first-ever appearance in a Grand Slam fourth round.

Honorable Mention

With Thursday being Canada Day, it’s only fitting to celebrate the Canadians still in contention at the All England Club. On Friday, No. 10 seed Denis Shapovalov has a 60% chance of taking out two-time Wimbledon champion Andy Murray for a place in the fourth round. Shapovalov will be well-rested after Pablo Andujar withdrew from their second round, while Murray needed five sets to outlast Oscar Otte on Wednesday.

No. 16-seeded Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime eased past Mikael Ymer and faces Nick Kyrgios next. Auger-Aliassime is favored at 61% but Kyrgios has played just seven matches (6-2) since February 2020.

Sharon Fichman carries the flag in women’s doubles (with Mexico’s Giuliana Olmos), and 2014 doubles champion Vasek Pospisil is playing alongside American Nick Monroe.

Stay tuned for more from INSIGHTS, and to learn more about Universal Tennis, click here.

•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 4 p.m. EST, July 1, 2021.

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