Universal Tennis INSIGHTS Delivers Predictions for the 2021 US Open

Universal Tennis INSIGHTS Delivers Predictions for the 2021 US Open

6 min read

The 2021 US Open kicks off on Monday with one of the most exciting storylines in the history of tennis ready to unfold. Novak Djokovic is looking to become the first man since Rod Laver in 1969 to win a calendar-year Grand Slam.

"I know I'm about to make a dream come true, that I'm facing a historic opportunity..." Djokovic said on media day. " would obviously be the greatest achievement in my entire career."

According to

Universal Tennis INSIGHTS: US Open*, the No. 1 seed has a 25% chance of winning the US Open. INSIGHTS is an algorithm-based prediction tool offering analysis you can’t find anywhere else.

THE FAVORITES ACCORDING TO INSIGHTS

Ashleigh Barty — 17%

Naomi Osaka — 9%

Aryna Sabalenka — 9%

Paula Badosa — 5%

Victoria Azarenka — 5%

Novak Djokovic — 25%

Stefanos Tsitsipas — 18%

Alexander Zverev — 14%

Daniil Medvedev — 12%

Matteo Berrettini — 6%

 

 

Let’s take a look at some key figures gearing up to take the court in New York City.

MOST LIKELY TO WIN THE TITLE

(1) Novak Djokovic (UTR Rating 16.19)

With Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Dominic Thiem all not playing this year, the obvious favorite is Djokovic. Even though he enters the tournament on a two-match losing streak, having lost the Tokyo semifinals to Alexander Zverev (UTR Rating 15.98) and the bronze-medal match to Pablo Carreno Busta. At least he’s going to be well-rested and eager as he opens against 18-year-old qualifier Holger Rune (UTR Rating 15.14) and the first seed he could face is No. 27 David Goffin (

UTR Rating 15.27).

"I took an extra break and didn’t play in Cincy, which was previously planned," Djokovic said. "I am pleased with my preparations for the US Open. There is no need to put additional pressure, but pressure is a privilege, it truly is, this is what you play for."

(1) Ashleigh Barty (UTR Rating 13.32)

The Australian comes into the US Open as a Wimbledon champion and has a 17% chance of winning her third Grand Slam, per INSIGHTS. The 25-year-old has been the most consistent player on the WTA Tour in 2021, winning five titles including Cincinnati last week without the loss of a set. While Naomi Osaka

(

UTR Rating 13.08) and Aryna Sabalenka

(

UTR Rating 13.15) are the obvious other favorites, No. 24 seed Paula Badosa

(

UTR Rating 13.00) and No. 18 seed Victoria Azarenka

(

UTR Rating 13.02) both have notable 5% odds of winning. Azarenka was a finalist last year, while Badosa has never won a match in New York.

"It was disappointing not to play here in New York last year and some pretty strange circumstances for everyone," Barty said on media day. "But it's certainly nice to be back here now... This week’s going to be exciting. We’ve got fans — that’s going to bring a lot of energy."

 

 

MOST LIKELY TO GO DEEP

(

2) Stefanos Tsitsipas (UTR Rating 16.05)

The Greek is second behind Djokovic with an 18% chance of winning his first Grand Slam title in New York. With a 31% chance of making the final, he’s just ahead of other possible finalists Zverev (24%) and No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev (22%). Tsitsipas drew Andy Murray

(

UTR Rating 15.14) in the first round, and the highest seed he could face first is the dangerous Cameron Norrie

(

UTR Rating 15.61), seeded No. 27.

(2) Naomi Osaka (UTR Rating 13.08)

The 2021 Australian Open champion has a 16% chance of making the US Open final, tied with No. 2 seed Sabalenka. Both Osaka and Sabalenka have 9% odds of winning the title, but Osaka has a higher chance of making the semifinals at 28%. While Osaka hasn’t had the easiest summer, withdrawing from Roland Garros and losing early in Tokyo and Cincinnati, she has two US Open titles to her name for a reason. She opens against Marie Bouzkova (UTR Rating 12.85).

 

 

MOST LIKELY TO GO THE FARTHEST UNSEEDED

Sebastian Korda (UTR Rating 15.56)

The 21-year-old American is poised for another big run as he has a 43% chance of making the fourth round, per INSIGHTS. He’s in a dicey section of the draw, opening against Nikoloz Basilashvili

(

UTR Rating 15.18) and possibly facing Carreno Busta

(

UTR Rating 15.63) in the second round. There is no easy match at the US Open and if anyone’s up for a challenge, it’s Korda.

Marketa Vondrousva (UTR Rating 12.74)

The Czech picked up a silver medal in Tokyo with inspired play and an upset of Osaka. A finalist at Roland Garros in 2019, the lefty slipped out of the spotlight with a wrist injury but her form in Tokyo was inspiring. She lost to Belinda Bencic

(

UTR Rating 12.76) in the gold-medal match and lost to the Swiss in the first round of Cincinnati. In New York, Vondrousova opens against qualifier Elena Gabriela Ruse (UTR Rating 12.26) and could play No. 25 seed Daria Kasatkina

(

UTR Rating 12.74) in the second round.

 

 

Stay tuned for more from INSIGHTS, and to learn more about Universal Tennis, click here.

•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 9 a.m. EST, Aug. 27, 2021.

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