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Action is heating up in Paris as players speed towards Week 2. Friday at Roland Garros saw men’s top half and women’s bottom half action. Novak Djokovic (UTR Rating 16.15) and Rafael Nadal (16.11) are just one win away from a highly anticipated quarterfinal showdown.
Just below the two rivals, Carlos Alcaraz (16.11) and Alexander Zverev (15.86) are one win away from their own quarterfinal clash. Djokovic, Nadal, Alcaraz, and Zverev all advanced on Friday with straight-set wins.
Notably, the INSIGHTS predicted winner has shifted from Djokovic (18%) to Alcaraz (20%). Nadal is expected to have the toughest fourth round as he has a 77% chance to get past No. 9 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime (15.63) .
Here's what to look for during fourth-round matches on Sunday, with help from Universal Tennis INSIGHTS,
Nadal, Djokovic, and Alcaraz Race Onward
Nadal hasn't played Auger-Aliassime since 2019 but has the edge in every INSIGHTS head-to-head category including trending UTR Rating, clay-court UTR Rating, and record versus common opponents. The 35-year-old Spaniard has way more experience than anyone in Paris, having won 13 titles on the red clay, and his lackluster lead-up clay season means he's well-rested. The winner of Nadal vs. Auger-Aliassime will play the winner of Djokovic and Diego Schwartzman (15.60).
Alcaraz will battle No. 21-seeded Karen Khachanov (15.55) for a place in his first Roland Garros quarterfinal. The 19-year-old should be able to advance with 78% odds: His clay UTR Rating is much higher than Khachanov’s at 16.10 to 15.46. The on-fire Spaniard will look to subdue the tall Russian’s power in their first career meeting.
Youth Steal the Show
In women’s action, No. 23-seeded dark horse Jil Teichmann (12.82) took out No. 15-seeded Victoria Azarenka in a third-set tiebreak. Teichman sets up a clash with 2017 US Open champion Sloane Stephens (12.39), who ended Frenchwoman Diane Parry’s run. Techiman is favored over Stephens at 71% but let's not forget that Stephens reached the final of Roland Garros in 2018. Sunday will be their first meeting.
Coco Gauff (12.83) managed to subdue veteran Kaia Kanepi, 6-3, 6-4 to reach her second career fourth round in Paris. The 18-year-old will face No. 31-seeded Elise Mertens (12.57) on Sunday. Gauff is favored at 67% and beat Mertens last year, though it was on grass in Eastbourne.
One of the most intriguing fourth-rounders will be between youngsters Amanda Anisimova (12.98) and Leylah Fernandez (12.76). It’s a rematch of their Indian Wells second round that ended with Anisimova retiring due to an illness. Anisimova has the INSIGHTS edge at 62%. Even though the 19-year-old Canadian has the better recent win-loss record, Anisimova has her beat in trending and clay UTR Ratings.
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•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 8 p.m. EST, May 27, 2022.