Tsitsipas Leads INSIGHTS Favorites at National Bank Open in Toronto

Tsitsipas Leads INSIGHTS Favorites at National Bank Open in Toronto

4 min read

The biggest stars in tennis are making a triumphant return to Canada with Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev, Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev, and Canadian heroes Felix Auger-Aliassime and Denis Shapovalov all highlighting the loaded hard-court ATP Masters 1000 field.

The ATP and WTA tours are returning to Canada for the first time since 2019. The men will play the National Bank Open presented by Rogers at the Aviva Centre in Toronto, while the women will compete at the IGA Stadium in Montreal. Second seed Rafael Nadal withdrew from the event on Monday with a left foot injury (he was initially the INSIGHTS favorite).

Universal Tennis INSIGHTS is providing in-depth analytics and predictions you can’t find anywhere else. Let’s take a look at tournament favorites and dark horses to watch for the men’s draw.


(3) Stefanos Tsitsipas (UTR Rating 16.03*)

According to INSIGHTS, the Greek is the third seed yet first in line to the trophy, with a 34% chance of winning his first Canada crown. He has great familiarity with Toronto as the site of his breakthrough in 2018. That summer, Tsitsipas reached the Toronto final (losing to Nadal). Later that year, he won his first ATP title in Stockholm, and the 22-year-old has since won six more crowns, including the 2019 ATP Finals and 2021 ATP Masters 1000 in Monte Carlo.

(1) Daniil Medvedev (UTR Rating 15.88)

The Russian is the top seed and enters the ATP Masters 1000 after a quarterfinal run in Tokyo. He’s the second favorite per INSIGHTS with 22%. It may not seem high, but he’s a full 14% ahead of the fourth favorite, Andrey Rublev (UTR Rating 15.68). Medvedev will be seeking his third title of the year after winning in Marseille and Mallorca and his fourth career ATP Masters 1000 trophy. The 25-year-old made the final of the National Bank Open (then the Rogers Cup) in 2019, losing to Nadal.



(4) Andrey Rublev (UTR Rating 15.69)

Rublev is the No. 4 seed behind Tsitsipas and comes to Toronto after a first-round exit in Tokyo. He still came away with a gold medal by winning the mixed doubles event with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Rublev has still had a stellar season so far, and according to INSIGHTS, he has a 34% chance of reaching the semifinals and an 8% chance of winning it all despite having never won a match in Canada (it's only his second main-draw appearance).


(6) Casper Ruud (UTR Rating 15.58)

Ruud, the No. 6 seed, is the only player with a 6% chance, putting him fourth in the highest-winning odds standings behind Rublev at 8%. Since dropping his Wimbledon opener, the 22-year-old Norwegian has complied a 12-match win streak with three titles, in Bastad, Gstaad, and Kitzbuhel. Arguably no other player has more significant momentum going into Toronto so the "dark horse" term may be beneath him, but of Ruud’s 35 match wins in 2021, just five have come on hard courts.



Jenson Brooksby (UTR Rating 15.26)

The 20-year-old American made his first big splash at the 2019 US Open with an upset of Tomas Berdych. After a brief college stint at Baylor, Broosbky turned pro in 2020 and won three ATP Challengers in 2021. Earlier this summer, he reached the ATP 250 final in Newport in his grass debut, and last week he made it to the semifinals in Washington. Per INSIGHTS, Brooksby, a wild card entry, has an 11% chance of reaching his first ATP Masters 1000 quarterfinal in his first appearance at this level.

Stay tuned for more from INSIGHTS, and to learn more about Universal Tennis, click here.

•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 3 p.m. EST, Aug. 10, 2021.

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