Previewing the US Open with the Men's Favorites and Dark Horses to Watch

Previewing the US Open with the Men's Favorites and Dark Horses to Watch

4 min read

The stage for the 2022 US Open is set with Rafael Nadal making his first appearance in New York in three years, and Serena Williams set to play her last match, ever.

Universal Tennis INSIGHTS is helping break down the favorites and dark horses to watch, starting with the men’s preview.


(2) Rafael Nadal — 24%

(1) Daniil Medvedev — 12%

(3) Carlos Alcaraz — 7%

(10) Taylor Fritz — 7%

(11) Jannik Sinner — 6%

(4) Stefanos Tsitsipas — 5%

(23) Nick Kyrgios — 4%

Sebastian Korda — 4%

(5) Casper Ruud — 4%

(8) Hubert Hurkacz — 3%

Most Likely to Win the Title

(2) Rafael Nadal (UTR Rating 16.06)

Nadal leads the way as the men’s favorite with 24% odds of winning his third Grand Slam of the year. The Spaniard won the Australian Open and Roland Garros before an abdominal injury forced him to withdraw from the Wimbledon semifinals. Wimbledon champion Novak Djokovic (UTR Rating 16.00) confirmed that he will not be able to compete in the US Open.

While Nadal has only played one match since Wimbledon, a loss to eventual champion Borna Coric (15.42), in Cincinnati, the 36-year-old is still favored to go all the way in New York. Nadal missed both the 2021 and 2020 US Opens, but he’s a four-time champion inside Arthur Ashe Stadium. He opens against Australian wild card Rinky Hijikata (14.35), who is making his Grand Slam debut.

Rafael Nadal and Iga Swiatek teamed up for the Tennis Plays For Peace exhibition in New York.
Rafael Nadal and Iga Swiatek played in the Tennis Plays For Peace exhibition on Wednesday. (AP Photo: Frank Franklin II)

Most Likely to Go Deep

(1) Daniil Medvedev (UTR Rating 15.88)

A dramatic battle for ATP No. 1 could unfold across the next two weeks, and it could involve Nadal, Medvedev, Carlos Alcaraz (15.88), Stefanos Tsitsipas (15.80), and Casper Ruud (15.73). With 12% odds of lifting his second US Open crown, 2021 champion Medvedev will start his bid against Stefan Kozlov (14.19).

Nadal and Medvedev stand ahead of the pack according to INSIGHTS followed by a group of men that have 5-7% odds, Alcaraz, Tsitsipas, Jannik Sinner (15.78), and Indian Wells champion Taylor Fritz (15.81).

(23) Nick Kyrgios (UTR Rating 15.82)

In the middle of the pack, Kyrgios stands out the most after a breakthrough summer that saw him reach the Wimbledon final and follow it up with singles and doubles titles in Washington. His first-round match is one of the most exciting (for fans, not for him) as he’ll play one of his closest friends, Thanasi Kokkinakis (15.31). The Australians thrilled their home crowd earlier this year when they captured the Australian Open doubles title.

Dark Horses

Sebastian Korda (UTR Rating 15.76)

Korda is unseeded and looms in the draw near fellow American and No. 29 seed Tommy Paul (15.46). Korda has steadily risen over the last two years, reaching the round of 16 at both Wimbledon and Roland Garros. He has yet to find his rhythm at the US Open as he’s seeking his first main-draw win. He'll have a solid chance when he opens against a qualifier.

(25) Borna Coric (UTR Rating 15.42)

Coric stunned four ATP Top-20 players to win the biggest title of his career at the ATP Masters 1000 in Cincinnati. His wins included Felix Auger-Aliassime (15.50), Cameron Norrie (15.65), and an especially impressive final win over Tsitsipas. Coric, a US Open quarterfinalist in 2020, also opens against a qualifier and could face No. 20 seed Dan Evans (15.21) in the second round.

(30) Maxime Cressy (UTR Rating 15.35)

Cressy has secured a seeding at a major for the first time. At No. 30, he opens against Marton Fucsovics (15.13) and is in the same section as No. 4 seed Tsitsipas. The former UCLA Bruin has really shone on grass with his serve-and-volley tactics, reaching the final in Eastbourne and winning Newport. Still, he started his year with a final at the ATP 250 in Melbourne.

Stay tuned for more from INSIGHTS, and to learn more about Universal Tennis, click here.

•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 9 a.m. EST, August 26, 2022.

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