Most Favorites Move On as Upsets Rain Down Early at Roland Garros

Most Favorites Move On as Upsets Rain Down Early at Roland Garros

5 min read

Roland Garros action kicked off on Sunday in Paris with first-round action taking place through Monday. Favorites Rafael Nadal (UTR Rating 16.13), Iga Swiatek (13.36), Simona Halep (13.18), Novak Djokovic (16.16), and Carlos Alcaraz (16.11) are through but upsets rained down like the wet weather.

Let’s take a look at what’s been happening and what you can expect next with the help of Universal Tennis INSIGHTS,

Biggest Upsets

No. 10 seed Garbine Muguruza (12.70) was the first high seed to drop when Kaia Kanepi (12.71) took her out 2-6, 6-3, 6-4. Kanepi is no stranger to huge upsets as she took out a top-seeded Halep in the first round of the US Open back in 2019.

Muguruza wasn’t the only women’s seed to tumble out early as Magda Linette (12.47) upset No. 6 seed Ons Jabeur (13.12). Jabeur was an INSIGHTS tournament favorite and had great momentum going into Paris after reaching the Madrid final.

Jabeur wouldn't be the highest seed to exit in Round 1 as defending champion and No. 2 seed Barbora Krejcikova (12.89) lost to 19-year-old Frenchwoman Diane Parry (11.96) on Monday. Parry just cracked the WTA 100 this year.



On the men’s side, the highest seed to drop out was No. 17 Reilly Opelka to Serbia's Filip Krajinovic. No. 31 seed Jenson Brooksby fell to veteran Pablo Cuevas in straight sets.

Top Seeds Cruise

Swiatek got her bid for her second Roland Garros crown off to a great start with a 55-minute 6-2, 6-0 win over qualifier Lesia Tsurenko (12.34). She’ll take on Alison Riske (12.71) on Wednesday. Per INSIGHTS, Swiatek has an 81% chance of moving into the third round.

Top seed Djokovic eased past Yoshihito Nishioka, 6-3, 6-1, 6-0 in just under two hours, while Nadal (in the same quarter) cruised past Jordan Thompson. An on-fire Alcaraz started his bid for his first Grand Slam with a dominant win over qualifier Juan Ignacio Alcaraz in his debut on Court Philippe-Chatrier. He’ll face Albert Ramos-Vinolas (15.28) next where, according to INSIGHTS, the teen is favored at 87%. He has two wins over the 34-year-old including last year in Umag.



Second-Round Matches to Watch

On Monday, Amanda Anisimova (12.99) came out on top against Naomi Osaka (12.99) in one of the most anticipated first-round matches. She took out the four-time Grand Slam champion in straight sets, 7-5, 6-4. The 20-year-old American’s road doesn’t get any easier as she takes on Donna Vekic (12.37) on Wednesday, although INSIGHTS expects her to advance with 79% odds.

Last year’s US Open champion Emma Raducanu (12.67) won her first Roland Garros match over qualifier Linda Noskova, coming back after dropping the first set. Per INSIGHTS, the Brit will be challenged by her next opponent, Aliaksandra Sasnovich (12.77). Sasnovich has a 54% chance of beating Raducanu with a higher overall UTR Rating and a win over the 19-year-old at Indian Wells last October.

Emma Raducanu is making her Roland Garros debut. (AP Photo/Michel Euler)

Another interesting second-round match features No. 32 seed Petra Kvitova (12.79) against wild card Daria Saville (12.38). INSIGHTS gives Saville a 26% chance of upsetting the two-time Wimbledon champion.

In men’s action, per INSIGHTS, there’s a 51% chance that Jaume Munar (15.54) reaches his first major third round over No. 16 seed Diego Schwartzman (15.51). Unseeded Hugo Dellien (15.42) also has a chance of making it to the third round as he has a 41% chance of upsetting No. 21 seed Karen Kachanov (15.52).

Stay tuned for more from INSIGHTS, and to learn more about Universal Tennis, click here.

•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 9 a.m. EST, May 23, 2022.

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