Carlos Alcaraz at the 2024 French Open.

Midway Point at Roland Garros 2024: What We’ve Seen and Who Might Win

As we hit the midway point of the French Open 2024, it’s a perfect time to take a look back at all the action, surprises, and standout performances that have made this tournament so exciting. Here at UTR Sports, we’re diving into the data, using UTR Ratings and predictions to break down what’s happened so far and what to expect next.

Predicted Winner: (2) Jannik Sinner (16.32)

Biggest Upset: Jozef Kovalik (14.54) d. (18) Karen Khachanov (15.76), 4-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4

Best Performer: Jozef Kovalik (14.54), performing like 14.91 (+0.37) over 3 matches

UTR Accuracy: 88 / 111 (79.3%)

Close Matches: 90 / 112 (80.4%)

At the halfway mark of the French Open 2024, Jannik Sinner is looking like the one to beat with a UTR Rating of 16.32. The biggest shocker so far? Jozef Kovalik defeating Karen Khachanov in a close 4-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 match. UTR INSIGHTS predictions have been pretty spot-on, nailing 88 out of 111 matches for a 79% accuracy rate. And it’s been a nailbiter of a tournament, with 80.4% of the matches being super close.

Top Contenders at the Midway Point of the French Open 2024

As we reach the halfway mark of the tournament, the competition is heating up with several top contenders emerging as favorites to take home the title. Let’s take a closer look at the leading men and women who have shown exceptional performance and have strong win probabilities according to UTR Sports INSIGHTS.

Jannik Sinner (UTR Rating 16.32) - 32% Win Probability

Jannik Sinner has consistently demonstrated why he is a top contender at this year’s French Open. With a UTR Rating of 16.32 and the highest win probability at 32%, Sinner hasn't dropped a set in his first three matches and is the reigning Australian Open champion. His strong baseline play and relentless stamina has him as the leading favorite to win the title.

View Jannik Sinner's UTR Profile

Novak Djokovic (UTR Rating 16.19) - 19% Win Probability

Novak Djokovic, a 24-time Grand Slam champion, is also an obvious top contender with a UTR Rating of 16.19 and an 19% win probability. The No. 1 seed's consistent performance and mental toughness will keep him in the race for the title, even withstanding a five-set test by Lorenzo Musetti in round 3, proving why he is one of the best of all time.

View Novak Djokovic UTR Profile

Carlos Alcaraz (UTR Rating 16.11) - 13% Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz, already a Wimbledon and US Open champion, is another clear favorite at the French Open with his powerful and aggressive style of play. His UTR Rating of 16.11 and a win probability of 13% highlight his potential to secure his first title in Paris.

View Carlos Alcaraz's UTR Profile

Predicted Winner: (1) Iga Swiatek (13.27)

Best Performer: Varvara Gracheva (11.94), performing like 12.47 (+0.53) over 3 matches

Biggest Upset: (Q) Olga Danilovic (12.02) d. (11) Danielle Collins (12.89), 6-7, 7-5, 6-4

UTR Accuracy: 87 / 115 (75.7%)

Close Matches: 63 / 115 (54.8%)

At the halfway point of the French Open 2024, Iga Swiatek is the favorite to win with a UTR Rating of 13.27. The biggest surprise so far has been Olga Danilovic upsetting Danielle Collins in a 6-7, 7-5, 6-4 battle. UTR INSIGHTS has nailed its predictions, with an accuracy rate of 75.7%, correctly calling 87 out of 115 matches. It’s been a competitive tournament with 54.8% of the matches being tightly contested.

Iga Swiatek (UTR Rating 13.27) - 50% Win Probability

Iga Swiatek has been dominant on clay this season, living up to her reputation as the reigning champion. With a UTR Rating of 13.27 and a staggering 50% win probability, Swiatek is poised to win her fourth Roland Garros trophy in a row. While she had to save a match point over a resurgent Naomi Osaka in round two, her fourth-round win over Anastasia Potapova was 6-0, 6-0 demolition that took 40 minutes.

View IgaSwiatek's UTR Profile

Elena Rybakina (UTR Rating 12.98) - 15% Win Probability

Elena Rybakina has proven herself already on the Grand Slam stage as a Wimbledon winner in 2022. With a UTR Rating of 12.98 and a 15% win probability, she could go all the way in Paris. She hasn't been tested yet but has to take on Elina Svitolina in the fourth round.

View Elena Rybakina's UTR Profile

Aryna Sabalenka (UTR Rating 12.92) - 11% Win Probability

Aryna Sabalenka is a two-time Australian Open champion and another formidable contender at the French Open. With a UTR Rating of 12.92 and a win probability of 12%, Sabalenka’s aggressive play has seen her breeze through her first three matches, including over Paula Badosa. She's up against a rapidly-rising Emma Navarro next.

View Aryna Sabalenka's UTR Profile

Rafael Nadal the Legend

Rafael Nadal exits the 2024 French Open.

Roland Garros can't be discussed without mentioning Rafael Nadal, the legend of clay. With a record 14 French Open titles, Nadal’s legacy at Roland Garros is unparalleled. His dominance on clay earned him the nickname “The King of Clay,” and his matches have always been a masterclass in skill, endurance, and sheer willpower.

Rafael Nadal has faced a heartbreaking exit from this year’s French Open with a tough opener against Alexander Zverev. It marked a significant moment in tennis history because the loss likely signals the end of an era. Dealing with ongoing injuries, it’s likely fans won’t see Nadal compete in the French Open again. His absence will be deeply felt, leaving behind a legacy that is already inspiring future generations.

As we head into the second week, here are the picks based on UTR Sports INSIGHTS:

French Open Men's Round of 16

The fourth round and quarterfinals at the French Open are shaping up. Some of the most anticipated matches include Novak Djokovic taking on Francisco Cerundolo, and Taylor Fritz versus Casper Ruud. Keep an eye on other close matches, like Hubert Hurkacz versus Grigor Dimitrov, where their UTR Ratings are almost neck and neck, and Alex De Minaur will going head-to-head with Daniil Medvedev, which promises to be a tight contest.

Men’s Tournament Win Probability:

• Djokovic or Sinner: 50%

• Field: 50%

Men’s Draw:

• Top Half: 43%

• Bottom Half: 57%

French Open Women's Round of 16

The women’s round of 16 and quarterfinals at the French Open is set to bring some intense matchups! Exciting battles include Elina Svitolina taking on Elena Rybakina, and Emma Navarro facing Aryna Sabalenka. In Tuesday's quarterfinals, Swiatek will take on Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova. With such competitive pairings, we’re in for a great week.

Women’s Tournament Win Probability:

• Swiatek or Rybakina: 65%

• Field: 35%

Women’s Draw:

• Top Half: 65%

• Bottom Half: 35%

Join UTR Sports!

To dive even deeper into match insights, advanced analytics, and enjoy exclusive partner perks, consider signing up for a Power subscription. Elevate your tennis experience with all the detailed data and benefits it offers.

Learn more here.

Tennis players playing tennis after upgrading to Power and saving money one events with UTR Sports

Let’s see what the rest of the tournament has in store! Follow UTR Sports on Instagram to keep up with all of the action!

Back to blog