6 min read
It’s been two years since the world’s best touched the hallowed green lawns of the All England Club. Wimbledon is just days away with 2019 champion Novak Djokovic (UTR Rating 16.10*) leading the men’s field and Ashleigh Barty (UTR Rating 13.32) as the top seed in the women’s draw. Plenty of others stand a chance at raising the trophy inside Centre Court, while some notable names are missing from the action including 2019 champion Simona Halep, Naomi Osaka, and Rafael Nadal.
This fortnight will be unlike any other thanks to Universal Tennis INSIGHTS, a predictability and analytics application to get fans deeper into the sport with the best-in-class data powered by the same engine that runs the UTR Rating. INSIGHTS predicts every player’s chances of winning a match, reaching a particular round, and winning the entire tournament.
Top 5 Seeds With INSIGHTS Title-Winning Odds
No. 1 Ashleigh Barty - 24%
No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka - 10%
No. 3 Elina Svitolina - 3%
No. 4 Sofia Kenin - <1%
No. 5 Bianca Andreescu - <1%
Special mention: No. 11 Garbine Muguruza - 10%
No. 1 Novak Djokovic - 36%
No. 2 Daniil Medvedev - 12%
No. 3 Stefanos Tsitsipas - 17%
No. 4 Alexander Zverev - 8%
No. 5 Andrey Rublev - 3%
Special mention: No. 7 Matteo Berrettini - 6%
The Men's Favorites
After winning Roland Garros, Djokovic is a favorite to win his 20th Grand Slam title, tying the record co-held by Roger Federer (UTR Rating 15.35) and Nadal. INSIGHTS predicts Djokovic’s chances of winning Wimbledon at 36%, which may not seem high but the second-highest percentage is down at 17%, held by No. 3 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas (UTR Rating 15.96).
Playing in his first major final in Paris, Tsitsipas led Djokovic by two sets before the Serbian surged to victory. Djokovic opens his bid against British teenager Jack Draper (INSIGHTS predicts Djokovic’s odds of winning at 97%), while Tsitsipas will take on Frances Tiafoe (Tsitsipas’ chances of advancing are a respectable 86%).
According to INSIGHTS, second seed Daniil Medvedev (UTR Rating 15.83) is third-highest, with a 12% chance of winning his first major. The Russian has never been beyond the third round of the grass-court major though he was a finalist at this year’s Australian Open. Medvedev will open against Jan-Lennard Struff (UTR Rating 15.15), who he just lost to in Halle but owns a 3-1 winning record against (and 83% chance of advancing).
Federer’s chances of winning Grand Slam No. 21 are at a low 1% after the Swiss’ comeback to the tour hasn’t gone as planned: He is just 5-3 this season and lost in the second round in Halle, where he’s a 10-time champion. The bright side for the 39-year-old is that he’s on the opposite side of the draw of Djokovic.
The Women's Favorites
The women’s field is similarly lined up with Barty holding a 24% chance of winning according to INSIGHTS with No. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka (UTR Rating 13.19) and No. 11 seed Garbine Muguruza (UTR Rating 13.24) both at 10%. Barty has won three titles already this year (Melbourne, Miami, and Stuttgart), while Sabalenka has won two crowns (Abu Dhabi and Madrid) and will be looking for her Grand Slam breakthrough, having never reached a quarterfinal. Muguruza was the Wimbledon champion in 2017 and picked up her eighth career title in Dubai this season.
Barty is a 92% favorite against her first opponent Carla Suarez Navarro, who is playing her last Wimbledon after coming back from beating Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Sabalenka has a 95% chance of defeating a tricky first opponent, Monica Niculescu (UTR Rating 11.99). Muguruza's first round could be the toughest challenge of the favorites with a 79% chance she overcomes Fiona Ferro.
The next-highest percentage belongs to 2020 Roland Garros champion Iga Swiatek (UTR Rating 13.12) at 7%, Elise Mertens at 6% (UTR Rating 12.97), and No. 12 seed Victoria Azarenka (UTR Rating 13.11) at 5%. A two-time Australian Open champion, Azarenka reached the 2020 US Open final but lost in her 2021 Australian Open opener and was taken out by eventual finalist Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (UTR Rating 12.82) in the fourth round of Roland Garros. Azarenka has a 94% chance of winning her first round against Kateryna Kozlova (UTR Rating 11.89) and a 50% chance of reaching the quarterfinals.
Serena Williams (UTR Rating 12.94), the woman who can never be counted out, has winning odds at just 5%. She’s making a bid to tie Margaret Court’s record of 24 majors following a disappointing fourth-round exit at Roland Garros.
Wimbledon begins on Monday, with the order of play for Day 1 announced on Sunday. Stay tuned for more from INSIGHTS, and to learn more about Universal Tennis, click here.
*UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS percentages as of 9 p.m. EST, June 27.