INSIGHTS Predicts Boost for Djokovic's Chances at Major No. 20 in London

INSIGHTS Predicts Boost for Djokovic's Chances at Major No. 20 in London

5 min read

Wednesday at Wimbledon was the first day without rain, letting organizers catch up with a whopping 79 completed matches. The highest seed to drop was No. 4 Sofia Kenin (UTR Rating 12.62*), in straight sets to Madison Brengle (UTR Rating 12.09) followed by No. 5 Bianca Andreescu losing to Alize Cornet.

The Universal Tennis INSIGHTS top standings for women’s champion remain in the same order: Ashleigh Barty (19%, down from a pre-tournament 24%), Garbine Muguruza (14%), Aryna Sabalenka (12%), and Victoria Azarenka (8%).

With Stefanos Tsitsipas out in Round 1, the men’s win probabilities have changed with Novak Djokovic’s chances of Grand Slam No. 20 going up to 39% from a pre-tournament 36%. On Wednesday, the Serbian made quick work of 2018 finalist Kevin Anderson, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3.

“It has only has been two matches and only two and still a long way to go,” Djokovic told press. “Hopefully, I can go very deep in the tournament, that’s the goal. I’m very pleased with the way I’ve been playing so far.”

Featured Women's Matches to Watch

Victoria Azarenka (UTR Rating 13.10) vs. Sorana Cirstea (UTR Rating 12.63)

Cirstea has a respectable 25% chance of ending No. 12-seeded Azarenka’s Wimbledon run in the second round. While Azarenka has a 3-0 record against the Romanian, they haven’t played in 12 years. Azarenka is a two-time Wimbledon semifinalist though the 31-year-old hasn’t been beyond the fourth round since having her son in 2016.



Daria Kasatkina (UTR Rating 12.74) vs. Jelena Ostapenko (UTR Rating 12.76)

INSIGHTS has this second-round clash tied with Kasatkina and Ostapenko having 50% odds of advancing and identical UTR Ratings. Their head-to-head record is 3-2 for Ostapenko with the 24-year-old just beating Kasatkina in the Eastbourne quarterfinals on her way to the title. Ostapenko, the 2017 Roland Garros champion, is seeking her first deep Grand Slam run since reaching the Wimbledon semifinals in 2018.

Featured Men's Matches to Watch

Frances Tiafoe (UTR Rating 15.15) vs. Karen Khachanov (UTR Rating 15.22)

Tiafoe’s excellent grass-court season continued Wednesday with a straight-sets win over Vasek Pospisil to set up a third-round showdown with No. 25 seed Karen Khachanov. Per INSIGHTS, Khachanov has a slight edge with a 55% win probability but Tiafoe’s carrying plenty of momentum. They’ve played just once before, at Wimbledon in 2018, with Khachanov surviving in five sets after Tiafoe had a two sets to love lead.

Alexander Bublik (UTR Rating 15.11) vs. Grigor Dimitrov (UTR Rating 15.35)

According to INSIGHTS, this second-round match on Thursday is going to be a close one with Dimitrov holding a 62% chance of beating the talented Kazakh. Bulblik is more than capable of outsing the No. 18 seed, having beaten him in their only meeting in 2019 in a third-set tie-break. Bublik leads the tour for most aces in 2021, hitting more than 440 in 38 matches going into Wimbledon.



Honorable Mention

UTR Pro Tennis Tour star Marc Polmans (UTR Rating 14.29) has made his way to the second round all the way from qualifying. The Australian, who reached the final of the PTT Australia Men’s $20K Event 1 in Bendigo in January, beat Lu Yen-hsun on Tuesday and faces No. 17 seed Cristian Garin (UTR Rating 15.32) next. Per INSIGHTS, Garin is favored to win at 92%.

Brengle stunned 2020 Australian Open champion Kenin, who INSIGHTS had predicted had a <1% chance of winning the title. Kenin hit 41 unforced errors to Brengle’s seven in the 6-2, 6-4 loss. Brengle’s no stranger to pulling off huge upsets, having notched wins over Petra Kvitova, twice, and Serena Williams. She’ll face Viktorija Golubic next.

Stay tuned for more from INSIGHTS, and to learn more about Universal Tennis, click here.

•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS predictions as of 4 p.m. EST, June 30.

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