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Wednesday at Roland Garros saw more women's upsets and Rafael Nadal (UTR Rating 16.11) continue his Grand Slam milestone-setting ways. Karolina Muchova (12.63) got the biggest scalp of the day by taking out No. 4 seed Maria Sakkari (13.10) and in an upset that Universal Tennis INSIGHTS expected, Aliaksandra Sasnovich (12.77) took out 2021 US Open champion Emma Raducanu (12.67).
Let’s take a closer look at what to expect next with intel from Universal Tennis INSIGHTS,
Muchova, a 2021 Australian Open semifinalist, will take on No. 27 seed Amanda Anisimova (12.97) for a place in the fourth round. According to INSIGHTS, Muchova has a 31% chance of advancing with a lower UTR and clay-court UTR Rating but a better recent win-loss record (22-13) and best win (Ashleigh Barty).
Sasnovich's next hurdle is No. 21 seed Angelique Kerber (12.71). Though Kerber is a three-time Grand Slam champion, Sasnovich has the INSIGHTS edge at 54%. Sasnovich is seeking her first win over the German, having lost to her most recently in Strasbourg earlier this month.
Nadal Reaches Milestone
Just when it feels like Nadal has reached every possible milestone, he adds another one. The 35-year-old won his 300th Grand Slam match by defeating 23-year-old Frenchman Corentin Moutet, 6-3, 6-1, 6-4 on Wednesday. Nadal is a perfect 10-0 against French players at their home Slam. The 13-time Roland Garros champion will take on No. 26 seed Botic Van De Zandschulp (15.54) in the third round.
Third-Round Matches to Watch
In men’s matches to watch, Brandon Nakashima (15.41) will play his first-ever third round at the Grand Slam level against No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev (15.87). Per INSIGHTS, Zverev has the upper hand at 74%. The two have faced off just once before, at the 2020 US Open, with Zverev winning in four sets.
One of the most anticipated third-round matches will feature two youngsters: Sebastian Korda (15.78) versus Carlos Alcaraz (16.11). The duo has split their first two career meetings with Korda beating the 19-year-old Spaniard in Monte Carlo earlier this year. Alcaraz has the INSIGHTS edge at 68% with a 12-match win streak (all on clay) since losing to Korda.
In women's matches, Victoria Azarenka (12.91), the No. 15 seed, takes on No. 23 Jil Teichman (12.82) in a match INSIGHTS expects to be very close. Azarenka is favored at 56%, having beaten the Swiss handily at this year’s Australian Open.
No. 18 seed Coco Gauff (12.81) beat Alison Van Uytvanch to reach the third round where Kaia Kanepi (12.71) is waiting. Kanepi followed her win over No. 10 seed Garbina Muguruza with a straight-set victory over Beatriz Haddad Maia. INSIGHTS has Guaff at 56% odds of beating Kanepi with the higher UTR Rating and clay-court UTR Rating, better record versus common opponents, and a recent win but it's been a while: The 18-year-old American beat the Estonian in two tiebreak sets in Parma one year ago.
Stay tuned for more from INSIGHTS, and to learn more about Universal Tennis, click here.
•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 8 p.m. EST, May 25, 2022.