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Taylor Fritz (UTR Rating 15.81) shocked himself and Rafael Nadal (16.29) to win the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells on Sunday. The 6-3, 7-6(5) win earned the 24-year-old his first ATP Masters 1000 title in impressive fashion, snapping Nadal’s 20-match win streak in 2022.
According to Universal Tennis INSIGHTS, Fritz had a 25% chance of taking out the Spaniard for the first time in his career. Nadal had the edge in every head-to-head category including trending UTR Rating, record versus common opponents, and recent win-loss record: He was 44-5 compared to Fritz’s 44-25.
Fritz was the No. 20 seed in the draw and took out seeded players Alex de Minaur in a third-set tiebreaker and Andrey Rublev in straight sets.
The biggest upset on the men’s side was Tommy Paul (15.56) for his win over No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev (16.09), while Nick Kyrgios (15.58) was the best performer, playing like a 15.98 (+0.40) over 4 matches.
Swiatek Shines in the Desert
Earlier on Sunday, the women’s championship went to 20-year-old Iga Swiatek (13.31). With a 6-4, 6-1 victory over Maria Sakkari (13.26), Swiatek picked up her 11th win and her second title in a row (after Doha last month).
Going into the final, Swiatek had a 53% edge over Sakkari, per INSIGHTS with an advantage of higher UTR Ratings (overall, on hard courts, and over the past three months). She had just beaten the Greek in straight sets in the Doha semifinals, but last year, Sakkari bested the Pole three times, including in the Roland Garros quarterfinals, all in straight sets.
The victory marks Swiatek’s second WTA 1000 title of 2022 and makes Swiatek the youngest player to win five career crowns since Caroline Wozniacki. She’ll rise to a career-high WTA ranking of No. 2, which would equal her UTR Pro Tennis Tour ranking (based on UTR Rating).
While Swiatek is the last woman standing in the desert, a special INSIGHTS shoutout goes to Danka Kovinic (11.77). The 27-year-old earned the biggest upset by defeating No. 7 seed Karolina Pliskova (13.02).
There's little time to rest as players head to the East coast for the Miami Open, with main draw matches beginning on Tuesday.
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•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 9 p.m. EST, March. 20, 2022.