Breaking Down the 2022 Roland Garros Women's Draw with Favorites and Dark Horses

Breaking Down the 2022 Roland Garros Women's Draw with Favorites and Dark Horses

4 min read

The draws for Roland Garros are out and it’s going to be an exciting two weeks on the famous red clay of Paris. Both events have some obvious favorites, and all eyes will be on a seemingly unstoppable Iga Swiatek (UTR Rating 13.36) and a red-hot Carlos Alcaraz (16.11) as he looks to dethrone Rafael Nadal (16.13) as the new King of Clay.

In a twist of wild draw fate, Novak Djokovic (16.15) and Nadal are in the same quarter and the same half as Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev. Stefanos Tsitsipas (15.96) and Daniil Medvedev (16.08) look to hold down the fort as favorites in the bottom half.



We’ll take a closer look at the men’s draw on Friday. Let’s start with a look at the women’s draw with help from Universal Tennis INSIGHTS, an algorithm-based prediction tool offering analysis and stats you cannot find anywhere else.


(1) Iga Swiatek — 22%

(5) Anett Kontaveit — 10%

(19) Simona Halep — 9%

(6) Ons Jabeur — 8%

(3) Paula Badosa — 6%

(4) Maria Sakkari — 6%

(7) Aryna Sabeleka — 4%

(9) Danielle Collins — 3%

(15) Victoria Azarenka — 3%

(13) Jelena Ostapenko — 2%

Now for a closer look at some key players in the field.

Most Likely to Win the Title

(1) Iga Swiatek (UTR Rating 13.36)

Swiatek leads the women’s field not just as the best player in the world with also with an unbeaten record since mid-February. The 20-year-old Pole has won 28 matches and five titles in a row (Doha, Indian Wells, Miami, Stuttgart, and Rome). Her last two victories have come on clay, making her even more primed for the upcoming clay-court Grand Slam.

Swiatek is also extremely comfortable in Paris, having won the 2020 title to make history as the first Pole to win a singles Grand Slam. At No. 1 in the WTA rankings, Swiatek has the highest odds, per INSIGHTS, with a 22% chance of coming away with her second major. Her road won’t be easy: She could run up against 2018 Roland Garros champion Simona Halep (13.18) in the fourth round.

Most Likely to Go Deep

(6) Ons Jabeur (UTR Rating 13.14)

While Halep is the second favorite, she’s landed too close to Swiatek in the draw. Ons Jabeur (13.14), the No. 6 seed, is poised for an even bigger breakthrough. An artist on the court, particularly on clay, the Tunisian reached the final in Charleston, Madrid, and Rome. She’s on the opposite side of the draw to Swiatek but could run into numerous Grand Slam champions early on including Petra Kvitova (12.79) in the third round and Emma Raducanu (12.67) or Angelique Kerber (12.78) in the fourth.



Dark Horses

Naomi Osaka (UTR Rating 12.99)

Naomi Osaka (12.99) enters unseeded and being an underdog may be just the thing she needs to find her footing. She’ll have to start fast as she's facing No. 27-seeded Amanda Anisimova (12.97) in the first round in one of the most-anticipated blockbuster openers of the entire tournament.

Anisimova, still just 20 years old, enjoyed her breakthrough in Paris in 2019, reaching the semifinals, and on her best days, has the ability to beat anyone. Though ranked No. 38 in the WTA Rankings, Osaka is No. 7 based on UTR Rating. Osaka has the higher three-month Trending UTR Rating and a better recent win-loss record, while Anisimova has the higher clay UTR Rating and beat the 24-year-old in their only meeting at the 2022 Australian Open in a third-set tiebreak.



(23) Jil Teichmann (UTR Rating 12.80)

Another intriguing dark horse is Jil Teichmann (12.80), seeded No. 23 and near the bottom of the draw. Teichman has 35% odds of reaching the fourth round and that's especially significant because she's never won a match in Paris. She's only been to the second round of a Grand Slam three times, on hard courts at the Australian Open and US Open. She opens against Bernarda Para (12.25) and won't be looking much farther than that even though Victoria Azarenka (12.95) could be waiting for her in the third round.

UTR Pro Tennis Tour Players to Watch

Three UTR Pro Tennis Tour women’s players competed in the Roland Garros qualifying draw with 2021 Barcelona PTT $25K Irina Bara (11.75) booking her place in the main draw with three wins. Katie Volynets (12.27), a rising 20-year-old American, was awarded a wild card into the main draw, as was Carole Monnet.

Stay tuned for more from INSIGHTS, and to learn more about Universal Tennis, click here.

•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 9 a.m. EST, May 20, 2022.

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