The 2024 Australian Open is set to take center stage starting on Sunday and the draws were revealed earlier this week. UTR Sports INSIGHTS is breaking down the favorites, dark horses, and matches to watch.
2024 Australian OpenWomen's Favorites, according to UTR Sports Insights
Iga Swiatek - 30%
Coco Gauff 13%
Jessica Pegula - 11%
Aryna Sabalenka - 8%
Elena Rybakina - 7%
Marketa Vondrousova - 4%
Top Picks to Win the 2024 Australian Open Women's Title
(1) Iga Swiatek (UTR Rating 13.30)
Iga Swiatek enters the first Grand Slam of the season on a 16-match win streak, dating back to when she won the WTA 1000 China Open in October. The No. 1’s section of the draw is stacked: she opens against 2020 Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin (12.43) and her second round is the winner between three-time major winner Angelique Kerber (12.18) and 2022 Melbourne finalist Danielle Collins (12.58).
Per INSIGHTS, Collins is favored at 72% odds of getting past Kerber, while Swiatek has an 87% chance of surviving her opening test.
Still, Swiatek is favored by UTR Sports INSIGHTS at 30% odds of winning her first Australian Open trophy. With a UTR Sports Power subscription, anyone can access the UTR Sports predictability and analytics application for expected winners, draw simulations, and precise head-to-head odds.
Swiatek's path to her fifth Grand Slam won't be easy
- 3R:Maria Bouzkova (12.51)
- 4R: Elina Svitolina(12.59) or Veronika Kudermetova (12.42)
- QF: 2023 Wimbledon champion;Marketa Vondrousova(12.71);
- SF:Jessica Pegula (12.91) or2022 Wimbledon winner Elena Rybakina (12.89)
- F: Defending champion Aryna Sabalenka(12.85) or US Open winnerCoco Guaff(12.94).
(4) Coco Gauff (UTR Rating 12.49)
In the opposite half of the draw from Swiatek, Coco Gauff is next on the list for most likely to win the tournament at 14%. The No. 4 seed has turned a corner in her young career after winning the 2023 US Open champion.
The 19-year-old defended her title in Auckland to get warmed up for the action in Melbourne. The first seed she could face is No. 32 Leylah Fernandez (12.50).
(2) Aryna Sabalenka (UTR Rating 12.85)
Last year’s winner Aryna Sabalenka is the No. 2 seed and is surrounded by qualifiers. The first seed she could face is No. 28 Lesia Tsurenko (12.34). Sabalenka started 2024 by reaching the final in Brisbane, where she lost a lopsided match to Elena Rybakina (12.89), the same player she beat to hoist her first Grand Slam trophy in Melbourne.
Dark Horses to Make a Deep Run at the 2024 Australian Open
Mirra Andreeva (UTR Rating 12.64)
All eyes will be on 16-year-old Mirra Andreeva, who could shake things up in the lower half of the draw. The teen is making her Australian Open debut but she’s got Grand Slam experience under her belt already having been to the fourth round of Wimbledon.
Carolina Wozniacki (UTR Rating 12.44)
Caroline Wozniacki is one of what feels like countless moms on the comeback (joining Osaka, Kerber, and Elina Svitolina to name a few). The Dane, who won her sole Grand Slam in Melbourne in 2018, opens against Magda Linette (12.15) where she’s got a 66% chance, per INSIGHTS, of advancing.
Notable First-Round Australian Open Women's Matches to Watch
On top of the above-mentioned Swiatek vs. Kenin and Kerber vs. Collins, there’s also new mom Naomi Osaka (12.39) versus No. 16 seed Carolina Garcia (12.31). No. 3 seed Rybakina drew former world No. 1 Karolina Pliskova (12.33).
• UTR Ratings and odds as of Jan. 12, 2024