2025 Australian Open Men's Draw Preview: Players to Watch

2025 Australian Open Men's Draw Preview: Players to Watch

The 2025 Grand Slam season is set to kick off in Australia, with the main draw beginning on Sunday (Saturday if you’re in the U.S.).

If it feels like the 2024 season only just ended, that’s because it did. Many tournaments actually kicked off in December, including the United Cup, Brisbane, and Auckland.

It’s time to break down the favorites and players to watch in the men’s draw with help from UTR Sports INSIGHTS, an analytics and predictions tool.

Jannik Sinner (UTR Rating 16.40)

Insights Odds to Win the Title: 24%

The 23-year-old enters the year's first major as the No. 1 ranked ATP player and No. 1 by UTR Rating. He’s a clear INSIGHTS favorite with 24% odds of defending his Melbourne title. Sinner won the US Open and ATP Finals last year, winning both finals over the same opponent, Taylor Fritz. The Italian also reached the Beijing final and won the Shanghai masters, making for a very busy fall season. Understandably, he opted not to play any warm-up events in Australia. Sinner is the top seed with Alexander Zverev the No. 2 seed.

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Taylor Fritz (16.15)

Insights Odds to Win the Title: 8%

Speaking of Fritz, he enters the Australian Open seeded No. 4, his highest seeding at a Grand Slam ever. He had a fun warm-up Down Under, pairing with Coco Gauff to win the United Cup, where he dropped just one match.

According to INSIGHTS, Fritz is a high favorite with 14% odds of reaching another Grand Slam final and 8% odds of going all the way.

Carlos Alcaraz (16.33)

Insights Odds to Win the Title: 17%

While Sinner cleaned up at two Grand Slams in 2024, Carlos Alcaraz claimed the other two (Roland Garros and Wimbledon). The Spaniard is the second-highest favorite per INSIGHTS at 17% odds of winning his first Australian Open.

Remarkably, this is only the 21-year-old Alcaraz’s fourth appearance in Melbourne, and it’s his worst major so far, with a quarterfinal run in 2024 marking his best run.

Seeded No. 3, he’s in the opposite half of the draw to Sinner but could see an encounter with a No. 7-seeded Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals.

Novak Djokovic (16.27)

Insights Odds to Win the Title: 15%

It would be remiss to do an Australian Open preview without spotlighting Djokovic. The Serbian holds a record-setting ten Australian Open titles

Still, Djokovic didn’t win a Grand Slam title in 2024, the first year he hasn’t since 2017. Though he’s in the opposite half of the draw to Sinner, he notably lost to the young Italian twice in 2024, including in the Australian Open semifinals.

Novak Djokovic in action in Australian in 2024.

Alex De Minaur (15.93)

Insights Odds to Win the Title: 4%

While the players listed above are obvious favorites, Alex de Minaur tends to run under the radar. The 25-year-old Australian will be a huge home favorite and is seeded No. 8 for the first time after an excellent 2024 saw him collect two titles ('s-Hertogenbosch and Acapulco).

In 2024, De Minaur became the first Aussie since Lleyton Hewitt to reach three Grand Slam quarterfinals in a row, though notably not in Melbourne, where his best result has been the fourth round from 2022-24.

Other notable in-form players lurking in the men’s draw according to the INSIGHTS odds include Ugo Humbert (16.01), Tommy Paul (15.90), and Matteo Berrettini (15.72).

Plenty of UTR Pro Tennis Tour players are in the draws — more than 45 in fact. Some of the male alumni include qualifiers Tristan Boyer and Learner Tien, main draw entries Alex Michelsen and Ben Shelton, and wild cards Li Tu, Tristan Schoolmate, James McCabe, Adam Walton, Omar Jasika, and Jacob Fearnley.

Fearnley notably opens against Nick Kyrgios, who is making his comeback after multiple injury setbacks.

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