On Saturday, the 2024 Roland Garros women's final will be decided between Iga Swiatek (UTR Rating 13.28) and Jasmine Paolini (12.58). UTR Sports INSIGHTS has been there every step of the way, and is picking Swiatek to come away with her fifth Grand Slam title, and fourth in Paris.
UTR Sports INSIGHTS: Women's Draw
Predicted Winner: (1) Iga Swiatek (13.28)
Best Performer: Varvara Gracheva (11.96), performing like 12.33 (+0.37) over 4 matches
Biggest Upset: (Q) Olga Danilovic (12.02) d. (11) Danielle Collins (12.89), 6-7, 7-5, 6-4
UTR Accuracy: 95/ 126 (75.4%)
Close Matches: 69 / 126 (54.8%)
Swiatek Cruises into Roland Garros Final
No one has been as impressive as Swiatek this fortnight. The three-time Roland Garros champion is obviously at ease on the red clay, but she’s dismissed so many top-tier opponents that she’s making it look far too easy to win a Grand Slam.
Swiatek has won four of her six matches in straight sets. There was the stunning 40-minute 6-0, 6-0 win over Anastasia Potapova followed by a 6-0, 6-2 demolition of 2023 Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova.
On Thursday, Swiatek booked her place in the final with a 6-2, 6-4 victory over 2023 US Open champion Coco Gauff (12.79)
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Swiatek has now defeated Gauff 11 of the 12 times they’ve played, and all five times they’ve faced each other on clay. UTR Sports INSIGHTS had predicted Swiatek with 77% odds of getting past Gauff, and going into the semifinals, the 23-year-old Pole was a whopping 62% likely favorite to win it all.
Her only challenge came early on in the tournament when she saved a match point against Naomi Osaka in the second round.
“For sure something changed,” Swiatek said about the Osaka match. “I would say I just adjusted better to the court. It’s not easy to play the first matches on a Grand Slam because the atmosphere is much different than it is in other tournaments...
"It was intense from the beginning and she put pressure on me, so I’m happy that I handled it well. After that the weather changed also and it helps my game. I just gained confidence.”
Familiar territory on the terre battue 🧱
— wta (@WTA) June 6, 2024
World No.1 @iga_swiatek is into another #RolandGarros final with a 6-2, 6-4 victory over Gauff! pic.twitter.com/u76ZbobPww
Swiatek is riding an 18-match win streak this clay season. If she wins on Saturday, she’d become the first woman to win three times in a row at the same major since Serena Williams (US Open 2010-2012) and first at Roland Garros since Justine Henin (2005-2007).
Paolini Breaks Through at Grand Slam Level
On Thursday, Paolini ended teenager Mirra Andreeva’s run to reach her first Grand Slam final. Per UTR Sports INSIGHTS, Andreeva (12.64) was actually favored to win with slighter higher odds, despite being unseeded, but No. 12-seeded Paolini cruised to a 6-3, 6-1 win.
Paolini has enjoyed a breakthrough season. The 28-year-old Italian started by reaching the fourth round of the Australian Open to crack the WTA Top 25 for the first time. She followed it by winning her first WTA 1000 in Dubai, which really put her name on the map.
In Paris, she didn’t face a seeded player until the quarterfinals where she upset 2022 Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina in three sets.
What a way to finish!
— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 6, 2024
Welcome to the women's singles final, Jasmine Paolini.#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/sQNTULlXrA
Swiatek vs. Paolini for 2024 Roland Garros Title
Swiatek will be a heavy favorite when she takes on Paolini in their third career meeting and first at a major. According to UTR Sports INSIGHTS, Swiatek has a whopping 84% chance of winning.
Swiatek has the higher UTR Rating and far more significant experience in Grand Slam finals. The two haven’t faced off since 2022, but Swiatek leads 2-0 in head-to-head meetings and has dropped only three games against the Italian each time.
Women’s Tournament Win Probability:
• Swiatek: 64%
• Field: 36%
Women’s Draw:
• Top Half: 74%
• Bottom Half: 26%
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