Rafael Nadal has won 14 French Open titles

Roland Garros 2024 Men's Preview: Sinner, Djokovic Lead Favorites; Nadal Looms

Rafael Nadal is back at Roland Garros for at least one more ride. Whether he can compete for a record-extending 15th Roland Garros title is an entirely different matter.

Or will Nadal’s long-time rival Novak Djokovic claim his fourth Roland Garros title and win his 25th major championship? Or maybe Italian Jannik Sinner will claim his second Grand Slam crown?

Enticing matchups and intriguing storylines abound at the 2024 Roland Garros. Let’s break them down with data from UTR Sports INSIGHTS.

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Roland Garros 2024 Men’s Singles Favorites According to UTR Sports INSIGHTS

(2) Jannik Sinner (16.33) - 34%
(1) Novak Djokovic (16.23) - 19%
(3) Carlos Alcaraz (16.08) - 8%
(7) Casper Ruud (15.98) - 5%
(5) Daniil Medvedev (15.97) - 4%
(14) Tommy Paul (15.80) - 3%
(4) Alexander Zverev (15.90) - 3%
(6) Andrey Rublev (15.85) - 3%
(8) Hubert Hurkacz (15.77) - 2%
(12) Taylor Fritz (15.83) - 2%

Breaking Down the Roland Garros 2024 Men's Favorites

Jannik Sinner (UTR Rating 16.33)

Jannik Sinner is one of the favorites to win the 2024 French Open men's singles title

Jannik Sinner has had the best 2024 to date on the men’s tour, a run that includes his maiden Grand Slam crown at the Australian Open and two other titles. But Sinner arrives at Roland Garros amidst heaps of uncertainty.

The 22-year-old Italian hasn’t played since making the Madrid quarterfinals last month (hip injury), and clay hasn’t been his best surface in the greatest of times.

In his best Roland Garros finish, Sinner reached the quarterfinals in 2020. But INSIGHTS has Sinner as the overwhelming favorite at 34%, the same odds that Iga Swiatek has on the women's side.

Sinner could meet French wild card Richard Gasquet or three-time ATP titlist Borna Coric of Croatia in the second round.

Novak Djokovic (16.23)

Novak Djokovic is going for his fourth French Open title

Novak Djokovic heads to Paris in a rare predicament: He hasn't won a title this year.

It’s only the second time since 2006, when Djokovic won his first ATP singles title, that he’s made it this far into the season without a Sunday smile The other occasion came in 2018, when Djokovic won his first tournament at Wimbledon in July.

UTR Sports INSIGHTS predicts that Djokovic also has a strong shot at winning his first title of the year at a Grand Slam this year. INSIGHTS has him as a 19% favorite to win it all.

Djokovic, who is seeded to face No. 30 seed Lorenzo Musetti in the fourth round, needs to win seven matches in a row in Paris.

He’s 14-5 on the season and hasn’t won more than three in a row since his Australian Open semifinal run in January.

Carlos Alcaraz (16.08)

Carlos Alcaraz will want to avenge his semifinal showing of a year ago against Djokovic when cramps and nerves did him in against the eventual champion.

But he, too, isn’t cruising into France with waves of momentum behind him. Alcaraz has one title to his name this year (Indian Wells), and he’s yet to advance past the quarterfinals of a clay-court event.

Alexander Zverev (15.90)

Alexander Zverev and Rafael Nadal faced off in 2022 French Open semifinals

Alexander Zverev, fresh off his Rome Masters 1000 title, waltzes into Paris with a welcome reward of facing the best player to ever grace a clay court: Rafael Nadal.

Zverev, the fourth seed, drew the unseeded Nadal, who is ranked No. 276 and is likely playing his final Roland Garros.

The soon-to-be 38-year-old Nadal is 112-3 at Roland Garros but has beaten Zverev seven of the 10 times they’ve played, including in the 2022 Roland Garros semifinals, when Zverev had to retire with an ankle injury that cost him the remainder of his season (above photo).

If Zverev can get past Nadal, who is 7-4 this season, look for the 27-year-old German deep into the second week. The winner of Zverev-Nadal is seeded to meet two-time Roland Garros quarterfinalist Holger Rune of Denmark in the Round of 16.

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Roland Garros 2024 Men's Dark Horses

Stefanos Tsitsipas (15.89)

Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Norway’s Casper Ruud for his third Monte-Carlo title last month. The Greek backed that up with a final run in Barcelona.

In a wide open Roland Garros, Tsitsipas must favor his chances.

INSIGHTS pegs him as a 2% favorite, although Tsitsipas nearly won Roland Garros three years ago when he led Djokovic two sets to zero in the 2021 final.

Nicolas Jarry (15.49)

The 28-year-old Chilean has resurrected his career and catapulted himself into the Top 20. The Rome finalist opens against home favorite Corentin Moutet of France.

Rafael Nadal (15.60)

For the first time in a long time, Nadal isn’t a favorite. But count out the 14-time champion at your own peril.

INSIGHTS gives Nadal a 34% chance of beating Zverev and extending his Roland Garros stay for at least another round.

Alex Michelsen (15.26)

The two-time UTR Pro Tennis Tour champion notched the biggest win of his career this week in Geneva by upsetting APT No. 12 Taylor Fritz.

It doesn’t get any easier – Michelsen opens in Paris against No. 11 Alex de Minaur of Australia (15.86).

(21) Felix Auger-Aliassime (15.50)

Canada’s No. 1 made the Madrid final before falling to Andrey Rublev. The first seed he could face is No. 15 Ben Shelton.

More on Roland Garros 2024

Roland Garros men's draw

ATP: How Djokovic-Sinner battle for World No. 1 took an intriguing twist

Sports Illustrated's Jon Wertheim: 2024 men's seed report

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