On Sunday, the 2024 Roland Garros men’s final will be decided between Carlos Alcaraz (UTR Rating 16.23) and Alexander Zverev (15.95). UTR Sports INSIGHTS has been following every step of this exciting fortnight and is predicting Alcaraz to claim his third Grand Slam title, and first in Paris.
UTR Sports INSIGHTS: Men’s Draw
Predicted Winner: (1) Carlos Alcaraz (16.23)
Best Performer:(LL) Jozef Kovalik (14.56), performing like 14.92 (+0.37) over 3 matches
Biggest Upset: (LL) Jozef Kovalik (14.56) d. (18) Karen Khachanov (15.79), 4-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
UTR Accuracy: 100/ 124 (80.6%)
Close Matches: 102 / 125 (81.6%)
Alcaraz Dominates Path to the Final
Carlos Alcaraz has been a force to reckon with this fortnight. The young Spaniard has displayed a level of dominance reminiscent of Rafael Nadal’s best years on the Parisian clay. He’d dropped only one set leading up to the semifinals and had little trouble with a potentially tough opponent in Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals.
In the semifinals on Friday, despite being the underdog with a 40% win probability according to UTR Sports INSIGHTS, Alcaraz defeated 2024 Australian Open champion Jannik Sinner.
The head-to-head between the two was tied at 4-4 going into the clash, and Alcaraz triumphed 2-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 battle, showcasing his incredible resilience and tactical prowess.
“You have to find the joy of suffering,” Alcaraz said. “That’s the key, even more on clay.”
He frequently reminds his team: “You have to enjoy suffering.”
View Carlos Alcaraz's UTR Profile
Any lingering concerns about his forearm injury are shelved as he added that his arm feels “amazing.” At 21 years and 1 month, the Spaniard has become the youngest player to make three Grand Slam finals, surpassing legends Andre Agassi, Bjorn Borg, Rafael Nadal, and Jim Courier.
Youngest players to reach Grand Slam finals on ALL THREE surfaces:
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) June 7, 2024
*Carlos Alcaraz* - 21 years 1 month
Andre Agassi - 22 years 1 month
Bjorn Borg - 22 years 2 months
Rafael Nadal - 22 years 6 months
Jim Courier - 22 years 10 months
Top of an elite group 👏#RolandGarros
Zverev Reaches First Roland Garros Final
Meanwhile, Zverev has steadily made his way through the draw. His straight-sets quarterfinal win over Alex de Minaur on Wednesday night was a significant bonus after consecutive five-setters in the previous two rounds.
View Alexander Zverev's UTR Profile
This tiring road to the final led him into a semifinal against Casper Ruud, who had beaten him in the same stage last summer. However, that result does not carry much weight, as Zverev was still recovering from the ankle injury he sustained in the 2022 Roland Garros semifinals and was struggling with a range of physical issues.
This time around, Zverev got his revenge, triumphing in 2-6, 6-2, 6-4, 6-2 to book his spot in the final.
ZVEREV WINS! #RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/Qpqj14wJSH
— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 7, 2024
Alcaraz vs. Zverev: A Clash of Titans
When Alcaraz and Zverev face off on Sunday, fans can expect a high-octane battle. According to UTR Sports INSIGHTS, Alcaraz has a 63% chance of winning. He has the higher UTR Rating, overall and on clay, and the most recent win over the Gerrman.
Zverev leads the head-to-head 5-4, and they split their two meetings in 2024. Alcaraz bested Zverev in Indian Wells in straight sets, while Zverev took out Alcaraz in the Australian Open quarterfinals. Sunday will mark their first meeting in a Grand Slam final, and Zverev's first Grand Slam final since losing the 2020 US Open (to Dominic Thiem). Alcaraz won the 2022 US Open and 2023 Wimbledon titles.
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