Eleven Australian Open titles for Novak Djokovic? Is that what awaits the tennis world in a mere two weeks?
UTR Sports INSIGHTS has some predictions on that and who else could be the pick to win the men’s singles title at the 2024 Australian Open, which starts on a Sunday for the first time.
Let’s break down the men’s singles draw.
2024 Australian Open Men’s Favorites, According to UTR Sports Insights
Novak Djokovic - 22%
Jannik Sinner - 16%
Daniil Medvedev - 14%
Carlos Alcaraz - 10%
Alexander Zverev - 7%
Andrey Rublev - 5%
Top picks to win the 2024 Australian Open men’s singles title
(1) Novak Djokovic (16.31)
Understatement alert: It’s hard to argue with Djokovic, who has won 28 consecutive matches at the season’s first Grand Slam, being a 22% favorite to take home his 11th Australian Open title.
Should he be a 100% favorite? That might be too far, even for the 36-year-old Serbian, who is chasing his 25th major championship title, which would be three more than Rafael Nadal(16.09) (not playing) and five more than Roger Federer (retired).
Djokovic could have an entertaining path to his 11th Australian Open title, with potential later-round matchups against the following players if the seeds hold:
- 3R: Tomas Martin Etcheverry (15.30) but Andy Murray (15.43) could also be waiting;
- 4R: 2023 US Open semifinal rematch against Ben Shelton (15.63);
- QF: 2023 Australian Open final rematch against Stefanos Tsitispas (15.72);
- SF: Andrey Rublev (16.02);
- F: 2023 Wimbledon final rematch against Carlos Alcaraz (16.16).
(4) Jannik Sinner (16.27)
It’s an interesting question that the ATP poses: “Is 2024 the Year of Sinner?” The 22-year-old Italian sure seems primed for a big run in this new year.
His two big wins against Djokovic late last season at the ATP Finals and the season-ending Davis Cup will give him more confidence against the all-time great, should they meet again in Melbourne.
READ MORE: UTR Rating Top 10 men's tennis players: Djokovic, Alcaraz, Sinner...
Sinner has work to do before then, though. To start Down Under, he’ll face 6-foot-3 Botic van de Zandschulp of the Netherlands, who made the 2021 US Open quarterfinals.
(3) Daniil Medvedev (16.19)
The 27-year-old Medvedev is seeking his second Grand Slam title after ending Djokovic’s calendar-year Grand Slam dreams at the 2021 US Open.
With Alcaraz already near the top and Sinner climbing more every year, some might say that Medvedev’s window is narrowing. But the 6-foot-6 right-hander remains a Top 5 stalwart and likes his chances Down Under, where he reached back-to-back finals in 2021 and 2022.
The Russian, one of the top hard-court players on tour for years, won 80% of his hard-court matches in 2023 (49-12).
(2) Carlos Alcaraz (16.16)
After the Spaniard upset Djokovic for his second Grand Slam title and first Wimbledon crown last July, it looked as if Alcaraz was the man to beat on the ATP Tour.
But a semifinal loss at the 2023 US Open to Daniil Medvedev and another semifinal loss at the ATP Finals to Djokovic cleared the way for the Serbian to fully reclaim the top spot.
Can Alcaraz climb back on top once more to start 2024? He’ll begin those efforts in Melbourne, where he faces Frenchman Richard Gasquet (14.82) in the first round and could meet 14th-seeded American Tommy Paul (15.67) in the fourth round. Paul and Alcaraz have split their four meetings.
Dark Horses to Make a Deep Run at the 2024 Australian Open
(14) Tommy Paul (15.67)
The 26-year-old Tommy Paul had his best year in 2023, which he kicked off by reaching the Australian Open semifinals. He also made the second week at the 2023 US Open, losing to compatriot Ben Shelton in the fourth round.
(13) Grigor Dimitrov (15.95)
Grigor Dimitrov reached the final at the ATP Masters 1000 in Paris to close out his 2023, and he’s begun 2024 on the right foot. The 32-year-old beat Andy Murray (15.43) and Holger Rune (15.52) to win the Brisbane title.
The last time Dimitrov won Brisbane was 2017, when he backed it up with a run to the Australian Open semifinals.
(10) Alex de Minaur (15.62)
Australia’s best hope on the men’s side made his Top 10 debut earlier this week and already has big wins to rely on in 2024.
Alex de Minaur, 24, beat Taylor Fritz (15.71), Novak Djokovic, and Alexander Zverev (16.05) at the season-opening United Cup.
De Minaur will have to put behind him his Grand Slam luck thus far. He’s reached only one major championship quarterfinal (2020 US Open) and is 1-5 in Grand Slam fourth-round matches.
Dane Sweeny (13.93)
Dane Sweeny might be the best example yet of how the UTR Pro Tennis Tour helps propel tennis careers daily across the world. From June-December 2020, Sweeny played a total of 44 UTR Pro Tennis Tour matches. He credits the UTR PTT for helping him become match tough.
“The UTR format forces you to play matches, even if you're losing,” he told UTR Sports. “So you feel super match tough, and that's just that's a great feeling. It builds a lot of confidence and that's easily translatable to the bigger tournaments. You carry that confidence with you, and that match toughness with you.”
The Aussie qualified for the 2024 Australian Open, which will be his first Grand Slam, and will face 22nd seed Francisco Cerundolo (15.38) in the first round.
• UTR Ratings and odds as of January 12, 2024.