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The 2022 Wimbledon women’s champion will be decided on Saturday when Ons Jabeur takes on Elena Rybakina on Centre Court. It’s the first time in the Open era that two first-time Grand Slam finalists will play for the title.
We're taking a closer look at what might unfold with the help of Universal Tennis INSIGHTS.
Ons Jabeur 72% vs. Elena Rybakina 28%
Ons Jabeur (UTR Rating 13.16), the No. 3 seed, is favored by INSIGHTS at 72% to beat No. 17-seeded Elena Rybakina (12.79) and raise the Venus Rosewater Dish. Her three-month trending UTR Rating is even higher than her overall at 13.18 compared to Rybakina’s 12.72.
Jabeur’s win-loss record is better than the 23-year-old Kazakh's, and actually, better than anyone on tour. She has won 84 matches in 2021 and 2022, more than every WTA player including World No. 1 Iga Swiatek (81).
In head-to-head meetings, Jabeur leads 2-1 with two wins over Rybakina in 2021 — although their most recent meeting in Chicago ended with a retirement from the Kazakh.
Jabeur Makes History, Again
Jabeur is the first Arab or African woman to reach a major final. She got this far with wins over Elise Mertens, Marie Bouzkova, and Tatjana Maria. The 27-year-old needed three sets to defeat her friend and mother of two Maria, 6-2, 3-6, 6-1.
Jabeur is the first Arab or African woman to reach a major final. She got this far with wins over Elise Mertens, Marie Bouzkova, and Tatjana Maria. The 27-year-old needed three sets to defeat her friend and mother of two Maria, 6-2, 3-6, 6-1.
"I want to go bigger, inspire many more generations," Jabeur said. "Tunisia is connected to the Arab world, is connected to the African continent. The area, we want to see more players. It's not like Europe or any other countries. I want to see more players from my country, from the Middle East, from Africa.
"I think we didn't believe enough at a certain point that we can do it. Now I'm just trying to show that. Hopefully, people are getting inspired."
While this fortnight is the obvious highlight of her 2022 season, the Tunisian won her biggest title to date at the WTA 1000 in Madrid before picking up a grass trophy in Berlin. She’s on an 11-match win streak and up to No. 2 in the WTA rankings, her highest yet.
Rybakina Seeks First Title of 2022
This season, Rybakina's best results prior to this fortnight were reaching the final in Adelaide and the quarterfinals in Indian Wells. In London, she has scored wins over the likes of Bianca Andreescu, Petra Martic, Ajla Tomljanovic, and Simona Halep. Her win over two-time major champion Halep was impressive: 6-3, 6-3.
"The key, of course, is my serve, aggressive game," Rybakina said. "She's a great champion. She's moving really well, reading the game. I just try to do my best, focus on things which I can control: my serve, my shots, emotions. No matter what's happening, just to stay calm, keep playing point by point."
At 23, she’s the youngest Wimbledon finalist since 21-year-old Garbine Muguruza in 2015. She’s also the first Kazakh to reach a major final — and only made her Wimbledon debut last year.
Watch for Rybakina’s serve to give Jabeur the most trouble on Saturday. It's Rybakina's biggest weapon as she leads the WTA Tour with the most aces in 2022 at 217. She has hit 49 aces this fortnight compared to Jabeur’s 17.
Stay tuned for more from INSIGHTS, and to learn more about Universal Tennis, click here.
•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 6 a.m. EST, July 8, 2022.