Previewing the Australian Open Quarterfinals with Favorites Nadal and Barty Taking the Stage

Previewing the Australian Open Quarterfinals with Favorites Nadal and Barty Taking the Stage

4 min read

The quarterfinals will get underway soon and the blend of favorites, young stars, veterans, and unseeded dark horses is making for some exciting clashes.

Let's see who may reach the Australian Open semifinals with added intel from Universal Tennis INSIGHTS, starting with matches that will take place on Tuesday (Monday night in the U.S.) from the top halves of the draws.

The Women's Quarterfinals (with win percentage odds)

Ashleigh Barty (69%) vs. Jessica Pegula (31%)

Barbora Krejcikova (64%) vs. Madison Keys (36%)

Danielle Collins (63%) vs. Alize Cornet (37%)

Iga Swiatek (59%) vs. Kaia Kanepi (41%)



(4) Barbora Krejcikova (13.07) vs. Madison Keys (12.84)

In the first quarterfinal of the Grand Slam season, 2021 Roland Garros champion Krejcikova will take on 2017 US Open finalist Keys. After a tough 2021 season, Keys has successfully reset her mindset and her game for the new year, and it's really paying off.

"My biggest mindset change is just trying to enjoy tennis, take some of that just internal pressure that I was putting on myself,” Keys said. “It was honestly freezing me. I felt like I couldn't play at all. Just taking that away and putting tennis into perspective: that it's a sport, something that when I was little I enjoyed doing and loved doing it. I was letting it become this dark cloud over me.

"Just trying to push all of that away and leave that behind last year and start fresh this year.”



Keys has upset two seeds so far including No. 11 Sofia Kenin and No. 8 Paula Badosa. Her next match may prove tougher as INSIGHTS gives Krejcikova the advantage at 64% odds of advancing past Keys in their first career meeting.

(1) Ashleigh Barty (13.10) vs. No. 21 Jessica Pegula (13.07)

Top seed Barty will look to make her second Australian Open semifinal when she takes on Pegula. Pegula, a 27-year-old American, is hoping to make her first semifinal after having her major breakthrough at the 2021 Australian Open with a run to the quarters.



Barty, a 25-year-old Australian with two Grand Slams under her belt, hasn't been challenged yet, with her closest match being a 6-4, 6-3 win over Amanda Anisimova in the third round. She has played Pegula just once, back in 2019, and according to INSIGHTS, is favored at 69% with the higher UTR Ratings, better win-loss record, and more wins against common opponents.

Barty is unmatched in wins with a 51-8 record over the previous 15 months.

The Men's Quarterfinals (with win percentage odds)

Matteo Berrettini (59%) vs. Gael Monfils (41%)

Rafael Nadal (83%) vs. Denis Shapovalov (17%)

Stefanos Tsitsipas (55%) vs. Jannik Sinner (45%)

Daniil Medvedev (80%) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime (20%)



(6) Rafael Nadal (16.20) vs. (14) Denis Shapovalov (15.51)

Nadal is heavily favored with 83% INSIGHTS odds of beating the 22-year-old Canadian but Shapovalov is fresh off a massive upset. He stunned No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev in straight sets, overcoming significant INSIGHTS disadvantages that saw Zverev go in with 81% odds.

"I'm happy to pull through and win today again," Shapovalov said. "It's always better to finish in three ... this is probably the one I least expected to finish in three."

But all tournament long, Nadal has dominated his opponents, dropping just one set in four matches (against Karen Khachanov). While Shapovalov beat the 35-year-old Spaniard during his explosive breakthrough in 2017, Nadal has won their last three bouts including most recently in Rome last year.

Shapovalov has made the semifinals of a major once before, at Wimbledon last year, while Nadal is seeking his record-breaking 21st Grand Slam and first Australian Open since 2009. While No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev was the tournament favorite during Week 1, Nadal has the higher title-winning odds now at 38%.

(7) Matteo Berrettini (15.86) vs. (17) Gael Monfils (15.70)

The final quarterfinal of Day 9 will see Monfils hopefully continue playing some of his best tennis. The 35-year-old Frenchman started the year with a title in Adelaide and has emerged from the very top of the draw (where Novak Djokovic is noticeably absent from). He has a 41% chance of getting past Berrettini, who eased past Pablo Carreno Busta in straight sets.

INSIGHTS' head-to-head tool shows Berrettini with the advantage in every category except wins over common opponents. He also has a 2-0 record in career meetings over Monfils, most recently beating him at the 2021 ATP Cup.



Monfils is not the only Frenchman making headlines Down Under as his compatriot, Alize Cornet (12.73) has reached her first Grand Slam quarterfinal in 63 attempts. The 32-year-old stunned No. 14 Simona Halep (12.91), 6-3, 3-6, 6-4.

An even higher women's seeds fell in the fourth round with unseeded 36-year-old Kaia Kanepi upsetting No. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka (13.13) in a super tiebreaker, 5-7, 6-2, 7-6(7). Sabalenka, who has been struggling mightily with her serve, accumulated 15 double faults for a tournament total of 56.

Come back soon for a preview of the rest of the quarterfinals, set for Wednesday (Tuesday night in the U.S.). The remaining matches include Medvedev vs. (9) Felix Auger-Aliassime, Cornet vs. (No. 27) Danielle Collins, (11) Jannik Sinner vs. (4) Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Kanepi vs. (7) Iga Swiatek.

Stay tuned for more from INSIGHTS, and to learn more about Universal Tennis, click here.

•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 9 a.m. EST, Jan. 24, 2022.

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