Osaka and Barty Return to Competition in Cincinnati, Where Tsitsipas and Medvedev are Favored

Osaka and Barty Return to Competition in Cincinnati, Where Tsitsipas and Medvedev are Favored

6 min read

It’s a quick turnaround for the ATP and WTA tours as they head south from Canada to Cincinnati, Ohio. Main draw play begins Monday with Top 8 seeds in each draw receiving byes. It’s the first time since 2019 that the Western & Southern Open returns to Ohio after spending one year in New York in a controlled COVID-19 bubble along with the US Open.

Speaking of Canada, Daniil Medvedev (

UTR Rating 15.87*) took home the men’s title after having a 22% chance of winning according to Universal Tennis INSIGHTS. He was the second favorite behind Stefanos Tsitsipas (

UTR Rating 16.04). Tsitsipas lost to Reilly Opelka (UTR Rating 15.24) when the 23-year-old American scored his first Top-5 win and the biggest upset of the tournament, per INSIGHTS, with a then +0.84 UTR Rating differential between them.

The women’s final saw unseeded Camila Giorgi (UTR Rating 12.80) stun No. 4 seed Karolina Pliskova (UTR Rating 12.86). Giorgi, a 29-year-old Italian, came seemingly out of nowhere to win the biggest trophy of her career. Per INSIGHTS, Giorgi's odds were a decent 44% of beating Pliskova in the final with two recent wins over the Czech and just an +0.07 three-month Trending UTR Rating differential.

 

 

Jessica Pegula (UTR Rating 12.88) made it all the way to the semifinals after INSIGHTS had her as the first unseeded player to appear on the winning odds list, with a 3% chance of winning along with fellow unseeded player Paula Badosa (UTR Rating 12.95). Badosa fell to Canadian wild card Rebecca Marino (UTR Rating 11.76) in the second round in the biggest upset of the WTA 1000, per INSIGHTS (a +1.19 UTR Rating differential). Marino was also the best INSIGHTS performer, playing like a UTR Rating 12.14 across three matches.

Universal Tennis INSIGHTS is providing in-depth analytics and predictions you can't find anywhere else. Now it’s time to take a closer look at the key players in Cincinnati.

MOST LIKELY TO WIN THE TITLE

(2) Stefanos Tsitsipas (UTR Rating 16.04)

The Greek lost a tight semifinal to a red-hot Opelka in Toronto, where he was also favored to take home the title. It was his first swing of true momentum after losing the Roland Garros final to Novak Djokovic and falling in the first round of Wimbledon. In Cincinnati, he has a 23% chance of winning the crown, and a 31% chance of making the final. He first awaits the winner of Laslo Djere and Sebastian Korda and is in the same section as Cristian Garin, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Matteo Berrettini.

(1) Ashleigh Barty (UTR Rating 13.30)

The Australian skipped Montreal but comes into Cincinnati as the top seed with a 20% chance of winning the WTA 1000. She has the highest odds out of anyone of making the semifinals at 44%. The Wimbledon champion was upset in the first round in her most recent event in Tokyo but picked up a bronze medal in mixed doubles. Barty awaits the winner of two qualifiers, Aliaksandra Sasnovich and Heather Watson. The first seed she could meet is No. 14 Victoria Azarenka.

 

 

MOST LIKELY TO GO DEEP

(1) Daniil Medvedev (UTR Rating 15.87)

With a 31% chance of reaching the ATP Masters 1000 final, Medvedev is the most likely player to make the championship match for the second week in a row. The Russian needed just 85 minutes to beat Opelka in the Toronto final for his 12th career title and fourth ATP Masters 1000. Per INSIGHTS, Medvedev is followed by Alexander Zverev, who has a 28% of making the final. No. 5 seed Berrettini and No. 4 seed Andrey Rublev both have a 29% and 28% chance of making the semifinals, respectively.

 

 

(2) Naomi Osaka (UTR Rating 13.19)

Osaka hasn’t had an easy time of it lately, losing in the third round of the Olympics and not playing any other event since withdrawing from Roland Garros. But she still has the highest odds of making the final at 25% and a respectable 13% chance of winning the trophy. She could play Coco Gauff in her opener if the teen gets past Hsieh Su-Wei. No. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka is just behind Osaka with a 19% chance of making the final, while her odds of winning it all drops to 11%.

 

 

MOST LIKELY TO GO THE FARTHEST UNSEEDED

Cameron Norrie (UTR Rating 15.56)

There is no easy section of the draw yet Norrie really has his work cut out against Toronto semifinalist John Isner first and possibly Jannik Sinner second. Still, according to INSIGHTS, the Brit could do well in Cincinnati with a 34% chance of reaching the round of 16 and a 16% chance of making the quarterfinals. After three finals in 2021, Norrie snagged his first ATP title in Los Cabos just last month.

Karolina Muchova (UTR Rating 12.94)

The Czech is one of the first unseeded players to appear on the INSIGHTS list with a 14% chance of making the semifinals and 7% odds of being in the final. Muchova has been one of the breakthrough stories of the year and hasn't competed since her quarterfinal run at the All England Club. She'll open against Johanna Konta and would take on Bianca Andreescu in the second round.

Stay tuned for more from INSIGHTS, and to learn more about Universal Tennis, click here.

•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 9 a.m. EST, Aug. 16, 2021.

Back to blog