4 min read
The 2023 Australian Open semifinals are set. On Thursday in Melbourne, No. 22 seed Elena Rybakina will face No. 24 seed Victoria Azarenka, and Magda Linette will try to continue her magical run against fifth seed Aryna Sabalenka. Universal Tennis INSIGHTS previews the action.
(22) Elena Rybakina (UTR 12.86) vs. (24) Victoria Azarenka (12.69)
In the first 2023 Australian Open women’s singles semifinal, Rybakina will look to reach new territory in Melbourne. The 22nd seed has never reached the Australian Open final. Before this year, she’d never made it past the third round Down Under.
But now she’s playing for a place in her second Grand Slam final. Rybakina, 23, is the reigning Wimbledon champion and has dropped only one set through four matches in Melbourne.
"I think, of course, I got all the experience at Wimbledon, and it's helping me now this time here in Australia and I know what to expect," she told reporters.
In straight sets, she knocked off top seed Iga Swiatek of Poland (13.13), which was Rybakina’s first win against a world No. 1. Rybakina also beat 2017 French Open champion Jelena Ostapenko (12.55), 2022 Australian Open finalist Danielle Collins (12.54), and Slovenia’s Kaja Juvan (12.31) without dropping a set.
Azarenka, meanwhile, has been there, done that, although it’s been a while. The 33-year-old won back-to-back Australian Open titles in 2012 and 2013. She improved to 3-3 in Australian Open quarterfinals when she beat No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula, 6-4, 6-1.
Azarenka reached her third Grand Slam final at the 2020 US Open final, but she hasn’t won a major championship title since she beat Li Na in the Australian Open final 10 years ago.
It will be a battle of styles when the two face off in Rod Laver Arena. Rybakina has been commanding on serve, leading the field with 35 aces and by winning 81 percent of her first-serve points. Azarenka, however, has converted the most break points (26).
INSIGHTS pegs Rybakina as a 57% favorite to reach her second Grand Slam final. Rybakina leads their head-to-head 1-0, a straight-sets win at Indian Wells last March. She also posts a higher UTR Rating across all categories (overall UTR, hard UTR, and three-month trending UTR).
The legend https://t.co/rSJNn0sX3F
— victoria azarenka (@vika7) January 24, 2023
Magda Linette (12.44) vs. (5) Aryna Sabalenka (12.80)
No one pinch Linette. In her 30th Grand Slam main draw appearance, the Pole is having the best run of her career. She is through to her first Grand Slam semifinal and is only the eighth woman in the Open era to make her Grand Slam debut after turning the big 3-0.
Linette upset No. 30 seed and two-time Grand Slam finalist Karolina Pliskova to reach the Australian Open semifinals. Pliskova was the fourth seeded player Linette has beaten this fortnight, including No. 4 seed Carolina Garcia.
She's one of the stories of #AO2023, but first-time Grand Slam semifinalist @MagdaLinette isn't done yet.#AusOpen
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 25, 2023
To make the final, though, Linette will have to do something no one has done this year: beat Sabalenka. The fifth seed is 9-0 on the year and has won all 18 sets.
Super Sabalenka 📈
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 25, 2023
The No.5 seed's wins are littered with winners 👉 https://t.co/9xjHOFvKLF@Infosys • #FindYourNext • #AusOpen • #AO2023 pic.twitter.com/VjRqu8S8kU
Through five matches Down Under, Sabalenka has blistered 163 winners to 114 unforced errors. She brings a 2-0 head-to-head record against Linette into their semifinal.
Sabalenka will try to reach her first Grand Slam final and snap a three-match Slam semifinal losing streak. She fell to Pliskova at Wimbledon in 2021, Leylah Fernandez at the 2021 US Open, and Swiatek at last year’s US Open.
Universal Tennis INSIGHTS predicts that she’ll get it done. INSIGHTS has Sabalenka as a 69% favorite.
•UTR Ratings and INSIGHTS probabilities as of 9:30 a.m. EST, January 25, 2023.